The decision to draw another card or stand pat in blackjack can be made by computing two simple probabilities. (MP)

Provides a protocol for counseling families with an autistic member concerning the risk of having an autistic child. Reports data regarding empirical recurrence risks and identifies the key elements that influence recurrence risks for individual couples. Counseling expertise in both diagnosis and treatment of autism and in the genetics of complex…

Some counterintuitive ideas in probability are examined. In particular, for sequential selection procedure, such as drawing cards, it is shown that there is probabilistic advantage to drawing first (or early) relative to drawing last (or late) in the sequence. (Author/MK)

Discusses a problem involving probability and uncertainty that students can investigate experimentally or theoretically and transforms the problem to a two-player game so that students can be introduced to some fundamental concepts of decision making. Includes computer programs used to analyze the problems. (MKR)

Based on the game "Prisoners' Dilemma," a game-theoretical model of the arms race suitable for postsecondary level mathematics and/or political science students is developed in which two players can initially choose any level of arms development. The purpose of the game is to show under what conditions deescalation rather than escalation…

Presents an activity to analyze the data from the Challenger explosion to help students understand the critical role of statistics in decision making and the importance of considering all available data. (MKR)

This textbook for teaching reasoning processes and decision making under conditions of uncertainty is written at an introductory level. Based on a translation of a Hebrew book, the text is intended for the general training of military and civilian personnel required to process, sort, and/or evaluate incomplete, unreliable information. Potential…

The intuitive simplicity of probability can be deceiving. Described is a dialogue that presents arguments for conflicting solutions to a seemingly simple problem determining the probability of having two boys in a two-child family knowing that one child is a boy. Solutions contain multiple arguments and representations. (MDH)

Uses the various strategies involved in baseball to illustrate basic concepts in game theory. Specifically discusses Willie Mays' base-stealing strategy and how it relates to probability and risk. Reminds students that expected results depend on adopted assumptions. (MJP)

Presents activities taken from the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics Addendum Series, grades 5-8, involving data collection and chance. Students determine whether a game is fair based on the data collected and examine rule changes to ensure fairness. (MDH)

Described is how the computer was used in an environmental education module to develop students' decision-making skills and the concepts of probability. The computer was also used to analyze the presence of lead in the environment. (KR)

Project MAP (Model Accounting Plan) is designed to test a demographic system for monitoring the within-school and post-school transitions of special education participants. Implemented at the local level, this system produces data to inform school-level decision-making. In addition, the data that are produced can be aggregated for use at higher…