In educational technology and learning sciences, there are multiple uses for a predictive model of whether a student will perform a task correctly or not. For example, an intelligent tutoring system may use such a model to estimate whether or not a student has mastered a skill. We analyze the significance of data recency in making such…

We propose a hierarchical Bayesian model for analyzing multi-site experimental fMRI studies. Our method takes the hierarchical structure of the data (subjects are nested within sites, and there are multiple observations per subject) into account and allows for modeling between-site variation. Using posterior predictive model checking and model…

Conventional differential item functioning (DIF) detection methods (e.g., the Mantel-Haenszel test) can be used to detect DIF only across observed groups, such as gender or ethnicity. However, research has found that DIF is not typically fully explained by an observed variable. True sources of DIF may include unobserved, latent variables, such as…

Research in Educational Data Mining could benefit from greater efforts to ensure that models yield reliable, valid, and interpretable parameter estimates. These efforts have especially been lacking for individualized student-parameter models. We collected two datasets from a sizable student population with excellent "depth" -- that is,…

In theoretical cognitive science, there is a tension between highly structured models whose parameters have a direct psychological interpretation and highly complex, general-purpose models whose parameters and representations are difficult to interpret. The former typically provide more insight into cognition but the latter often perform better.…

A two-step Bayesian propensity score approach is introduced that incorporates prior information in the propensity score equation and outcome equation without the problems associated with simultaneous Bayesian propensity score approaches. The corresponding variance estimators are also provided. The two-step Bayesian propensity score is provided for…

Most biological scientists conduct experiments to look for effects, and test the results statistically. One of the commonly used test is Student's t test. However, this test concentrates on a very limited question. The authors assume that there is no effect in the experiment, and then estimate the possibility that they could have obtained these…

New high-frequency multimodal data collection technologies and machine learning analysis techniques could offer new insights into learning, especially when students have the opportunity to generate unique, personalized artifacts, such as computer programs, robots, and solutions engineering challenges. To date most of the work on learning analytics…

Multiple regression is frequently used across the various social sciences to analyze cross-sectional data. However, it can often times be challenging to justify the assumption of common regression coefficients across all respondents. This manuscript presents a heterogeneous Bayesian regression model that enables the estimation of…

In the modern world information has become the new power. An increasing amount of efforts are being made to gather data, resources being allocated, time being invested and tools being developed. Data collection is no longer a myth; however, it remains a great challenge to create value out of the enormous data that is being collected. Data modeling…

As expectations of the economic impact of educational attainment are soaring (Hanushek & Woessmann, 2009) and conjectures about successful national educational reforms (Mourshed, Chijioke, & Barber, 2010) are welcomed by educational policy-makers in many countries, a careful assessment of the empirical evidence for these kinds of claims is…

Background: In the context of international large scale assessments, it is often not feasible to implement a complete survey of all relevant populations. For example, the OECD Program for International Student Assessment surveys both students and schools, but does not obtain information from teachers. In contrast the OECD Teaching and Learning…

Identifying collaboration between learners in a course is an important challenge in education for two reasons: First, depending on the courses rules, collaboration can be considered a form of cheating. Second, it helps one to more accurately evaluate each learners competence. While such collaboration identification is already challenging in…

In practice, the sum of the item scores is often used as a basis for comparing subjects. For items that have more than two ordered score categories, only the partial credit model (PCM) and special cases of this model imply that the subjects are stochastically ordered on the common latent variable. However, the PCM is very restrictive with respect…

Since its inception in 2008, the Educational Data Mining (EDM) conference series has featured some of the most innovative and fascinating basic and applied research centered on data mining, education, and learning technologies. This tradition of exemplary interdisciplinary research has been kept alive in 2013 as evident through an imaginative,…