This final report summarizes past research and suggests new approaches to the problem of estimating long-term individual constants using path analysis. The general objective of the research was to detect and measure the likelihood that one variable, x, measured at time, t, has a causal influence on another variable, y, measured at a subsequent…

Classical test theory, item response theory, and generalizability theory all treat the abilities to be measured as continuous variables, and the items of a test as independent probes of underlying continua. These models are well-suited to measuring the broad, diffuse traits of traditional differential psychology, but not for measuring the outcomes…

Path analysis, a technique related to multiple regression analysis is used for ascribing causal relationships among variables. Path analysis involves the construction of explicitly formulated causal models and makes the reasoning explicit in the form of path diagrams and structural equations. Regression analysis is then used to construct path…

The applicability of the Rasch model to data from a typical personality test, the High School Personality Questionnaire (HSPQ), was studied. The data were gathered on Junior High and High School students in the Louisville Public Schools (Kentucky). Item easinesses and person abilities were estimated and compared by age group, within each age…

The International Relations Archive undertakes as its primary goals the acquisition, management and dissemination of international affairs data. The first document enclosed is a copy of the final machine readable codebook prepared for the data from the Political Events Project, 1948-1965. Also included is a copy of the final machine-readable…

Procedures for obtaining student samples for the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) and deriving survey weights for analysis of survey data are described. Sample designs are economically and operationally feasible, and weighting procedures result in increased precision of estimates as they account for the probabilities of student…

Following a brief historical review of the mechanism of mathematical modeling, examples are included that associate a mathematical model with given data (changes in sea level) and that model a real-life situation (process of parallel parking). Also provided is the rationale for the curricular implementation of mathematical modeling. (JJK)

Statistical data can be represented in a number of qualitatively different ways, the choice depending on the following three conditions: the concepts to be investigated; the nature of the data; and the purpose for which they were collected. This paper begins by setting out frameworks that describe the nature of statistical thinking in schools, and…

Four different procedures were used for estimating the proportion of persons who would be classified consistently as either passing both of two parallel tests or failing both. These four methods were applied at each of four different mastery level scores for each of three different length tests. Data were based on 50 replications of each procedure…

This paper discusses specification and interpretation of human capital models of women's earnings when data on actual work experience are available. It uses the segmented earnings function framework developed by Jacob Mincer and Solomon Polachek and considers the effects of data errors, issues involving data interpretation, consequences of model…

The accuracy with which regression models estimate treatment effects is dependent upon a number of conditions. The stability of the regression line (a function of sample size and correlation between pretest and posttest) is said to be the most important of these conditions. The utility of regression models is proportional to the size of the…

Duncan's interpretation of his research on the nature and process of the distribution of rewards in the U.S. stratification system is questioned. Statistical and conceptual flaws are noted in Duncan's work and their implications explored. A reanalysis of primary survey data is presented and, based on a reinterpretation of this data, a…

The measurement of the evolution of illiteracy is the focus of this study. An elementary method for estimating the short-term evolution of the number of illiterates forms the subject of the first part of this analysis. This method is based on the demographic growth rate, the product of the school system and past trends. The second part is devoted…

Describes class exercises where undergraduates construct and test mathematical models using data and issues related to social security. The students collect data and forecast economic and demographic variables that determine future tax rates. They then discuss government policies that are derived from their models. (MJP)

Describes a study that used transaction log analysis to investigate the use of subject searching in the University of California's Online Union Catalog, MELVYL. Mathematical models of trends and patterns in the data are presented, problems with subject searching are explained, and remedies to subject searching problems are suggested. (62…