Discussion of models for library circulation data highlights a new statistical prediction model that creates a flexible regression curve. Linear graphs that result from previous models are discussed, bivariate discrete distributions are explained, and graphs that show library circulation for one year at a time are presented. (nine references) (LRW)

The authors respond to Miley's critique (TM 503 900) of their article on predicting parolee recidivism (TM 502 998). They are pleased that he discovered some computational errors, that he used their method to analyze other data, and that he developed hypotheses concerning the behavior of the parameters. (Author/GDC)

Describes and evaluates a circuitless flow model for forecasting future student attributes and enrollment projections, compared with a simple Markov chain model. Data from a study of secondary students are used to illustrate the analytical methodologies and to contrast results of the Markov chain and circuitless flow models. (JG)

The split-population exponential design suggested by Maltz and McCleary to predict parolee recidivism (TM 502 998) was applied to discharged psychiatric inpatients. Parameter estimates changed systematically as greater and greater observation time was allowed in the computation, thus limiting extrapolability. (Author/GDC)

THIS PAPER DEALS WITH SOME TESTS OF HYPOTHESIS FREQUENTLY ENCOUNTERED IN THE ANALYSIS OF MULTIVARIATE DATA. THE TYPE OF HYPOTHESIS CONSIDERED IS THAT WHICH THE STATISTICIAN CAN ANSWER IN THE NEGATIVE OR AFFIRMATIVE. THE DOOLITTLE METHOD MAKES IT POSSIBLE TO EVALUATE THE DETERMINANT OF A MATRIX OF HIGH ORDER, TO SOLVE A MATRIX EQUATION, OR TO…

This final report summarizes past research and suggests new approaches to the problem of estimating long-term individual constants using path analysis. The general objective of the research was to detect and measure the likelihood that one variable, x, measured at time, t, has a causal influence on another variable, y, measured at a subsequent…

The use of mathematical models in the experimental analysis of behavior has increased over the years, and they offer several advantages. Mathematical models require theorists to be precise and unambiguous, often allowing comparisons of competing theories that sound similar when stated in words. Sometimes different mathematical models may make…