Knowledge tracing aims to model and predict students' knowledge states during learning activities. Traditional methods like Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) and logistic regression have limitations in granularity and performance, while deep knowledge tracing (DKT) models often suffer from lacking transparency. This paper proposes a…

The prediction of student performance and the analysis of students' learning behaviour play an important role in enhancing online courses. By analysing a massive amount of clickstream data that captures student behaviour, educators can gain valuable insights into the factors that influence students' academic outcomes and identify areas of…

Analysis of programming process data has become popular in computing education research and educational data mining in the last decade. This type of data is quantitative, often of high temporal resolution, and it can be collected non-intrusively while the student is in a natural setting. Many levels of granularity can be obtained, such as…

Various areas of educational research are interested in the transitions between different states--or events--in sequential data, with the goal of understanding the significance of these transitions; one notable example is affect dynamics, which aims to identify important transitions between affective states. Unfortunately, several works have…

The NAEP EDM Competition required participants to predict efficient test-taking behavior based on log data. This paper describes our top-down approach for engineering features by means of psychometric modeling, aiming at machine learning for the predictive classification task. For feature engineering, we employed, among others, the Log-Normal…

A model that maps the requisite skills, or knowledge components, to the contents of an online course is necessary to implement many adaptive learning technologies. However, developing a skill model and tagging courseware contents with individual skills can be expensive and error prone. We propose a technology to automatically identify latent…

We introduce a model which combines principles from psychometric and connectionist paradigms to allow direct Q-matrix refinement via backpropagation. We call this model dAFM, based on augmentation of the original Additive Factors Model (AFM), whose calculations and constraints we show can be exactly replicated within the framework of neural…

Affect dynamics, the investigation of how student affect transitions from one state to another, is a popular area of research in adaptive learning environments. Recently, the commonly used transition metric "L" has come under critical examination when applied to data that exclude self-transitions (i.e., transitions where a student…

To successfully reduce student attrition, it is imperative to understand what the underlying determinants of attrition are and which students are at risk of dropping out. We develop an early detection system (EDS) using administrative student data from a state and private university to predict student dropout as a basis for a targeted…

Effective learning outcome modeling is crucial to the success of learning evaluation in education. In the digital age, the movement towards online learning and computerized assessments has resulted in an explosion of structured and unstructured educational data (e.g., learners' problem-solving process data), which offers new opportunities for…

Educational data mining involves the application of data mining techniques to student activity. However, in the context of computer programming, many data mining techniques can not be applied because they require vector-shaped input, whereas computer programs have the form of syntax trees. In this paper, we present ast2vec, a neural network that…

We propose a novel model, Wide & Deep Item Response Theory (Wide & Deep IRT), to predict the correctness of students' responses to questions using historical clickstream data. This model combines the strengths of conventional Item Response Theory (IRT) models and Wide & Deep Learning for Recommender Systems. By leveraging clickstream…

In learning, errors are ubiquitous and inevitable. As these errors may signal otherwise latent cognitive processes, tutors--and students alike--can greatly benefit from the information they provide. In this paper, we introduce and evaluate the Systematic Error Tracing (SET) model that identifies the possible causes of systematically observed…

Intelligent tutoring systems (ITSs) teach skills using learning-by-doing principles and provide learners with individualized feedback and materials adapted to their level of understanding. Given a learner's history of past interactions with an ITS, a learner performance model estimates the current state of a learner's knowledge and predicts her…

Higher education institutions often examine performance discrepancies of specific subgroups, such as students from underrepresented minority and first-generation backgrounds. An increase in educational technology and computational power has promoted research interest in using data mining tools to help identify groups of students who are…