This paper considers the process by which individuals estimate the risk of adverse events, with particular attention to the social context in which risk estimates are formed. We compare subjective probability estimates of crime victimization to actual victimization experiences among respondents from the 1994 to 2002 waves of the Survey of Economic…

The first chapter studies the effects of a teacher performance bonus program implemented in Brazil in 2008. The program covered all schools directly managed by the State of Sao Paulo government, and was based on a standardized test run by the state education authority. I use high-school exit exams organized by the federal government (ENEM) to…

Perhaps the greatest value of response to intervention (RTI) as a decision framework is that it brings attention to variables (e.g., mastery of prerequisite skills, frequency of instructional corrective feedback, reinforcement schedules for correct responding) that if changed might make a meaningful difference for students (e.g., child rate of…

The new Common Core State Standards for Mathematics have been formulated to provide students with instruction that will help them acquire a thorough knowledge of math at their grade level, which will in turn enable them to move on to higher mathematics with competence and confidence. "Hands-on Activities for Teaching the Common Core Math…

Continuous exponential families may be employed to find continuous distributions with the same initial moments as the discrete distributions encountered in typical applications of classical equating. These continuous distributions provide distribution functions and quantile functions that may be employed in equating. To illustrate, an application…

Conjoint choice experiments are used widely in marketing to study consumer preferences amongst alternative products. We develop a class of choice models, belonging to the class of Poisson race models, that describe a "random utility" which lends itself to a process-based description of choice. The models incorporate a dependence structure which…

"Mathematics and Sports", edited by Joseph A. Gallian, gathers 25 articles that illuminate the power and role of mathematics in the worlds of professional and recreational play. Divided into sections by the kind of sports, the book offers source materials for classroom use and student projects. Readers will encounter mathematical ideas from an…

In Volume 23(2) of the "Australian Senior Mathematics Journal," Boncek and Harden present an exercise in fitting a Markov chain model to rainfall data for Darwin Airport (Boncek & Harden, 2009). Days are subdivided into those with precipitation and precipitation-free days. The author abbreviates these labels to wet days and dry days.…

In sequential mastery testing (SMT), assessment via computer is used to classify examinees into one of two mutually exclusive categories. Unlike paper-and-pencil tests, SMT has the capability to use variable-length stopping rules. One approach to shortening variable-length tests is stochastic curtailment, which halts examination if the probability…

The garlic problem presented in this article develops several themes related to dimensional analysis and also introduces students to a few basic statistical ideas. This garlic problem was used in a university preparatory chemistry class, designed for students with no chemistry background. However, this course is unique because one of the primary…

This article explores the configural weighted average (CWA) hypothesis suggesting that extension biases, like conjunction and disjunction errors, occur because people estimate compound probabilities by taking a CWA of the constituent probabilities. The hypothesis suggests a process consistent with well-known cognitive constraints, which…

This methodological note illustrates how a commonly used calculation of the Delta-p statistic is inappropriate for categorical independent variables, and this note provides users of logistic regression with a revised calculation of the Delta-p statistic that is more meaningful when studying the differences in the predicted probability of an…

The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

One of the main objectives in meta-analysis is to estimate the overall effect size by calculating a confidence interval (CI). The usual procedure consists of assuming a standard normal distribution and a sampling variance defined as the inverse of the sum of the estimated weights of the effect sizes. But this procedure does not take into account…

Loss of previously established behaviors in early childhood constitutes a markedly atypical developmental trajectory. It is found almost uniquely in autism and its cause is currently unknown (Baird et al., 2008). We present an artificial neural network model of developmental regression, exploring the hypothesis that regression is caused by…