A decision field theory is proposed and used to explain motivational and cognitive mechanisms that guide the deliberation process involved in decisions made under uncertainty. Decision theories are extended into the stochastic-dynamic category. The proposed theory is compared with four other theories of decision making under uncertainty. (SLD)

Three experiments examined whether preschoolers viewed outcomes of familiar causes of illness as definite or probabilistic. Findings indicated that children judged that a common cause would affect all group members the same, and believed they could definitely predict illness outcomes in a single case, contrasting with adults' variable and…

This study compares homonym learning to novel word learning by three- to four-year-old children to determine whether homonyms are learned more rapidly or more slowly than novel words. In addition, the role of form characteristics in homonym learning is examined by manipulating phonotactic probability and word frequency. Thirty-two children were…

This report presents results of the 2011 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) in mathematics at grades 4 and 8. Nationally representative samples of 209,000 fourth-graders and 175,200 eighth-graders participated in the 2011 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) in mathematics. At each grade, students responded to…

The main aim of this study was to gain a better understanding of why students abandon their studies, or perform less well than expected given their high school grades, and to develop predictive models that can help identify those students most at-risk at the time they enter college. This will allow teachers and those responsible for student…

The challenge of multiple comparisons is to maximize the power for answering specific research questions, while still maintaining control over the rate of Type I error. Several multiple comparison procedures have been suggested to meet this challenge. The stagewise protected procedure (SPP) of A. J. Klockars and G. R. Hancock tests null hypotheses…

Confidence intervals are an important tool to indicate uncertainty of estimates and to give an idea of probable values of an estimate if a different sample from the population was drawn or a different sample of measures was used. Standard symmetric confidence intervals for proportion estimates based on a normal approximation can yield bounds…

Examined are methodologies for modeling students' choices among higher education institutions. A statistical technique called "conditional logit analysis" is applicable to the problem studied. These applications are reviewed and certain weaknesses inherent in the approach are pointed out. Alternative approaches are offered, based on the…

The relative power of the Mann-Whitney statistic, the t-statistic, the median test, a test based on exceedances (A,B), and two special cases of (A,B) the Tukey quick test and the revised Tukey quick test, was investigated via a Monte Carlo experiment. These procedures were compared across four population probability models: uniform, beta, normal,…

Reformulates the success-breeds-success (SBS) principle in informetrics in order to generate a general theory of source-item relationships. Topics include a time-dependent probability, a new model for the expected probability that is compared with the SBS principle with exact combinatorial calculations, classical frequency distributions, and…

Describes a procedure for information retrieval testing that is based on the comparison of statistically independent methods of retrieval applied to the same database. The probability ranking principle is discussed, the statistical meaning of relevance is examined, and the methodology is illustrated on a large database of MEDLINE records. (19…

In this note we consider an experiment involving an urn and k balls with numbers 1, 2, 3, ..., k. The experiment consists of drawing n balls either with replacement or without replacement. We note some surprising results.

Contingency tables, and their associated statistical tests, are frequently used in educational and social research. Popular statistical tests used in contingency table analyses include the Pearson chi-square test and the likelihood ratio chi-square test. These two tests are chi-square distributed under large sample conditions. However, when a…

The Pearson and likelihood ratio statistics are frequently used for assessing the absolute fit of probability models. Researchers are often interested in comparing fits provided by different models which may have a subsuming or non-subsuming relation. A subsuming relation exists when the parameters of the reduced model form a subset of those…

Through Monte Carlo procedures, three different techniques for estimating the parameter theta (proportion of the "shocks" remaining in the system) in the Integrated Moving Average (0,1,1) time-series model are compared in terms of (1) the accuracy of the estimates, (2) the independence of the estimates from the true value of theta, and…