A computer simulation of Bayes' Theorem was conducted in order to determine the probability that an examinee was a master conditional upon his test score. The inputs were: number of mastery states assumed, test length, prior expectation of masters in the examinee population, and conditional probability of a master getting a randomly selected test…

Summarizing work which is part of an Army research program on Methodological Issues in the Construction of Criterion Referenced Tests, the focus of this paper is on a Bayesian model, which gives the probability of correctly classifying an examiner as a master or as a nonmaster while taking into consideration the test length and the mastery cut-off…

The problems associated with misclassifying students when pass-fail decisions are based on test scores are discussed. One protection against misclassification is to set a confidence interval around the cutting score. Those whose scores fall above the interval are passed; those whose scores fall below the interval are failed; and those whose scores…