A model for student retention and attrition is presented. Focus is on alternative models for the "dampening" in attrition rates as educational programs progress. Maximum likelihood estimates for the underlying parameters in each model and a Bayesian analysis are provided. (TJH)

Extended the use of a beta prior in trait estimation to the maximum expected a posteriori (MAP) method of Bayesian estimation. This new method, essentially unbiased MAP, was compared with MAP, essentially unbiased expected a posteriori, weighted likelihood, and maximum-likelihood estimation methods. The new method significantly reduced bias in…

The accuracy of estimation procedures in item response theory was studied using Monte Carlo methods and varying sample size, number of subjects, and distribution of ability parameters for: (1) joint maximum likelihood as implemented in the computer program LOGIST; (2) marginal maximum likelihood; and (3) marginal Bayesian procedures as implemented…

In the methods and approaches developed for estimating the operating characteristics of the discrete item responses, the maximum likelihood estimate of the examinee based upon the "Old Test" has an important role. When Old Test does not provide a sufficient amount of test information for the upper and lower part of the ability interval,…

Two simple empirical approximate Bayes estimators are introduced for estimating domain scores under binomial and hypergeometric distributions respectively. Criteria are established regarding use of these functions over maximum likelihood estimation counterparts. (SLD)

The quality of approximations to first- and second-order moments based on latent ability estimates is discussed. The ability estimates are based on the Rasch or the two-parameter logistic model, and true score theory is used to account for the fact that the basic quantities are estimates. (SLD)

The effects of five ability estimators, that is, maximum likelihood estimator, weighted likelihood estimator, maximum a posteriori, expected a posteriori, and Owen's sequential estimator, on the performances of the item response theory-based adaptive classification procedure on multiple categories were studied via simulations. The following…

Standard item response theory (IRT) models posit latent variables to account for regularities in students' performance on test items. They can accommodate learning only if the expected changes in performance are smooth, and, in an appropriate metric, uniform over items. Wilson's "Saltus" model extends the ideas of IRT to development that…

A short review of the different estimation procedures that have been used in association with the Rasch model is provided. These procedures include joint, conditional, and marginal maximum likelihood methods; Bayesian methods; minimum chi-square methods; and paired comparison estimation. A comparison of the marginal maximum likelihood estimation…

The overall purpose of this research was to compare a maximum likelihood based tailored testing procedure to a Bayesian tailored testing procedure. The results indicated that both tailored testing procedures produced equally reliable ability estimates. Also an analysis of test length indicated that reasonable ability estimates could be obtained…

To reduce the cost of item writing and to enhance the flexibility of item presentation, items can be generated by item-cloning techniques. An important consequence of cloning is that it may cause variability on the item parameters. Therefore, a multilevel item response model is presented in which it is assumed that the item parameters of a…

A method of item factor analysis is described, which is based on Thurstone's multiple-factor model and implemented by marginal maximum likelihood estimation and the EM algorithm. Also assessed are the statistical significance of successive factors added to the model, provisions for guessing and omitted items, and Bayes constraints. (TJH)

Previous work on the mathematical and implementation details of the marginalized maximum likelihood estimation procedure is extended to encompass the marginalized Bayesian procedure for estimating item parameters of R. J. Mislevy (1986) and to communicate this procedure to users of the BILOG computer program. (SLD)

The question of how to analyze unbalanced hierarchical data generated from structural equation models has been a common problem for researchers and analysts. Among difficulties plaguing statistical modeling are estimation bias due to measurement error and the estimation of the effects of the individual's hierarchical social milieu. This paper…

Simultaneous estimation of many parameters can often be improved, sometimes dramatically so, if it is reasonable to consider one or more subsets of parameters as exchangeable members of corresponding populations. While each observation may provide limited information about the parameters it is modeled directly in terms of, it also contributes…