The present work focuses on the performance of two types of shrinkage priors--the horseshoe prior and the recently developed regularized horseshoe prior--in the context of inducing sparsity in path analysis and growth curve models. Prior research has shown that these horseshoe priors induce sparsity by at least as much as the "gold…

This article uses the interventionist theory of causation, a counterfactual theory taken from philosophy of science, to strengthen causal analysis in process tracing research. Causal claims from process tracing are re-expressed in terms of so-called hypothetical interventions, and concrete evidential tests are proposed which are shown to…

Parallel process latent growth curve mediation models (PP-LGCMMs) are frequently used to longitudinally investigate the mediation effects of treatment on the level and change of outcome through the level and change of mediator. An important but often violated assumption in empirical PP-LGCMM analysis is the absence of omitted confounders of the…

Parallel process latent growth curve mediation models (PP-LGCMMs) are frequently used to longitudinally investigate the mediation effects of treatment on the level and change of outcome through the level and change of mediator. An important but often violated assumption in empirical PP-LGCMM analysis is the absence of omitted confounders of the…

The year 2022 is the 20th anniversary of Joseph Schafer and John Graham's paper titled "Missing data: Our view of the state of the art," currently the most highly cited paper in the history of "Psychological Methods." Much has changed since 2002, as missing data methodologies have continually evolved and improved; the range of…

Foundations of statistics research aims to establish fundamental principles guiding inference about populations under uncertainty. It is concerned with the process of learning from observations, notions of uncertainty and induction, and satisfying inferential objectives. The growing interest in predictive methods in high-stakes fields like…

Estimation of causal effects requires making comparisons across groups of observations exposed and not exposed to a a treatment or cause (intervention, program, drug, etc). To interpret differences between groups causally we need to ensure that they have been constructed in such a way that the comparisons are "fair." This can be…

We consider the cascading effects of researcher decisions throughout the process of quantifying racially polarized voting (RPV). We contrast three methods of estimating precinct racial composition, Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG), fully Bayesian BISG, and Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP), and two algorithms for performing ecological…

Measurement error affects the quality of population orderings of an index and, hence, increases the misclassification of the poor and the non-poor groups and affects statistical inferences from binary regression models. Hence, the conclusions about the extent, profile, and distribution of poverty are likely to be misleading. However, the size and…

Bayesian methods seem a natural choice for combining sources of evidence in meta-analyses. However, in practice, their sensitivity to the choice of prior distribution is much less attractive, particularly for parameters describing heterogeneity. A recent non-Bayesian approach to fixed-effects meta-analysis provides novel ways to think about…

A wide range of machine-learning-based approaches have been developed in the past decade, increasing our ability to accurately model nonlinear and nonadditive response surfaces. This has improved performance for inferential tasks such as estimating average treatment effects in situations where standard parametric models may not fit the data well.…

Background: A single-case design focuses on individual performance and measures the causal relationships between variables (Kazdin, 2019). This experimental design enables researchers to measure the learning behaviors of individual participants over time across phases and assess the effectiveness of an instructional strategy in improving or…

A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to compare methods for handling missing data in growth mixture models. The methods considered in the current study were (a) a fully Bayesian approach using a Gibbs sampler, (b) full information maximum likelihood using the expectation-maximization algorithm, (c) multiple imputation, (d) a two-stage multiple…

When working with multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have difficulty moving between modes, and default variational or mode-based approximate inferences will understate posterior uncertainty. And, even if the most important modes can be found, it is difficult to evaluate their relative weights in…

Conventional estimators for indirect effects using a difference in coefficients and product of coefficients produce the same results for continuous outcomes. However, for binary outcomes, the difference in coefficient estimator systematically underestimates the indirect effects because of a scaling problem. One solution is to standardize…