We consider the cascading effects of researcher decisions throughout the process of quantifying racially polarized voting (RPV). We contrast three methods of estimating precinct racial composition, Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG), fully Bayesian BISG, and Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP), and two algorithms for performing ecological…

Empirical analysis of variation in demographic events within the population is facilitated by using longitudinal survey data because of the richness of covariate measures in such data, but there is wave-on-wave dropout. When attrition is related to the event, it precludes consistent estimation of the impacts of covariates on the event and on event…

Including a large number of predictors in the imputation model underlying a multiple imputation (MI) procedure is one of the most challenging tasks imputers face. A variety of high-dimensional MI techniques can help, but there has been limited research on their relative performance. In this study, we investigated a wide range of extant…

This article uses the interventionist theory of causation, a counterfactual theory taken from philosophy of science, to strengthen causal analysis in process tracing research. Causal claims from process tracing are re-expressed in terms of so-called hypothetical interventions, and concrete evidential tests are proposed which are shown to…

Longitudinal studies including a time-to-event outcome in social research often use a form of event history analysis to analyse the influence of time-varying endogenous covariates on the time-to-event outcome. Many standard event history models however assume the covariates of interest to be exogenous and inclusion of an endogenous covariate may…

Microblogging sites have become important data sources for studying network dynamics and information transmission. Both areas of study, however, require accurate counts of indegree, or follower counts; unfortunately, collection of complete time series on follower counts can be limited by application programming interface constraints, system…

We first review existing literature on cumulative logit models along with various ways to test the parallel lines assumption. Building on the traditional frequentist framework, we introduce a method of Bayesian assessment of null values to provide an alternative way to examine the parallel lines assumption using highest density intervals and…

The article explores the role that subjective evidence of causality and associated counterfactuals and counterpotentials might play in the social sciences where comparative cases are scarce. This scarcity rules out statistical inference based upon frequencies and usually invites in-depth ethnographic studies. Thus, if causality is to be preserved…

Causal analyses typically focus on average treatment effects. Yet for substantive research on topics like inequality, interest extends to treatments' distributional consequences. When individuals differ in their responses to treatment, three types of inequality may result. Treatment may shape inequalities between subgroups defined by pretreatment…

The internal validity of observational study is often subject to debate. In this study, we define the counterfactuals as the unobserved sample and intend to quantify its relationship with the null hypothesis statistical testing (NHST). We propose the probability of a robust inference for internal validity, that is, the PIV, as a robustness index…

This study proposes a two-stage causal modeling with instrumental variables to mitigate selection bias, provide correct standard error estimates, and address nonnormal and missing data issues simultaneously. Bayesian methods are used for model estimation. Robust methods with Student's "t" distributions are used to account for nonnormal…

In relational event networks, the tendency for actors to interact with each other depends greatly on the past interactions between the actors in a social network. Both the volume of past interactions and the time that has elapsed since the past interactions affect the actors' decision-making to interact with other actors in the network. Recently…

Count responses with grouping and right censoring have long been used in surveys to study a variety of behaviors, status, and attitudes. Yet grouping or right-censoring decisions of count responses still rely on arbitrary choices made by researchers. We develop a new method for evaluating grouping and right-censoring decisions of count responses…

This article presents two alternative methods to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) for improving inferences from underpowered research designs. Post hoc design analysis (PHDA) assesses whether an NHST analysis generating null findings might otherwise have had sufficient power to detect effects of plausible magnitudes. Bayesian analysis…

Our objective is the estimation of voter transitions between two consecutive parliamentary elections. Usually, such analyses have been based either on individual survey data or on aggregated data. To move beyond these methods and their respective problems, we propose the application of so-called hybrid models, which combine aggregate and…