People often rely on the covariation between events to infer causality. However, covariation between cues and outcomes may change over time. In the associative learning literature, extinction provides a model to study updating of causal beliefs when a previously established relationship no longer holds. Prediction error theories can explain both…

In schema-based source monitoring, people mistakenly predict better source memory for expected sources (e.g., oven in the kitchen; "expectancy effect"), whereas actual source memory is better for unexpected sources (e.g., hairdryer in the kitchen; "inconsistency effect"; Schaper et al., 2019b). In three source-monitoring…