This paper attempts to quantify the accuracy limit of "nextitem-correct" prediction by using numerical optimization to estimate the student's probability of getting each question correct given a complete sequence of item responses. This optimization is performed without an explicit parameterized model of student behavior, but with the…

We show that student learning can be accurately modeled using a mixture of learning curves, each of which specifies error probability as a function of time. This approach generalizes Knowledge Tracing [7], which can be viewed as a mixture model in which the learning curves are step functions. We show that this generality yields order-of-magnitude…

Modeling student knowledge is a fundamental task of an intelligent tutoring system. A popular approach for modeling the acquisition of knowledge is Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT). Various extensions to the original BKT model have been proposed, among them two novel models that unify BKT and Item Response Theory (IRT). Latent Factor Knowledge…