Conducting research with human subjects can be difficult because of limited sample sizes and small empirical effects. We demonstrate that this problem can yield patterns of results that are practically indistinguishable from flipping a coin to determine the direction of treatment effects. We use this idea of random conclusions to establish a…

The problem of assessing whether experimental results can be replicated is becoming increasingly important in many areas of science. It is often assumed that assessing replication is straightforward: All one needs to do is repeat the study and see whether the results of the original and replication studies agree. This article shows that the…