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Direct linkGelman, Andrew; Hullman, Jessica; Wlezien, Christopher; Morris, George Elliott – Grantee Submission, 2020
Presidential elections can be forecast using information from political and economic conditions, polls, and a statistical model of changes in public opinion over time. However, these "knowns" about how to make a good presidential election forecast come with many unknowns due to the challenges of evaluating forecast calibration and…
Descriptors: Presidents, Elections, Incentives, Public Opinion
