There is ample evidence that reasoning about stochastic phenomena is often subject to systematic bias even after instruction. Few studies have examined the detailed learning processes involved in learning probability. This paper examines a case study drawn from a large corpus of data collected as part of a research project that dealt with the…

This study reports the results of a study examining how easily students are able to transfer frequency solutions to conditional probability problems to novel situations. University students studied either a problem solved using the traditional Bayes formula format or using a natural frequency (tree diagram) format. In addition, the example problem…

This article is a systematic reflection on a sequence of episodes related to teaching probability. Our central claim is that reducing problems to a consideration of the sample space, which consists of equiprobable outcomes, may not be in accord with learners' initial ways of reasoning. We suggest a "desirable pedagogical approach" in which the…

The purpose of this study is to contribute insights into how collaborative activity can help promote students' mathematical understanding. A group of six high school students (15- to 16-year olds) worked together on a challenging probability task as part of a larger, after-school, longitudinal study on students' development of mathematical ideas…

The paper discusses findings of a study that investigated Malawian students' meanings for some probability vocabulary. The study explores the meanings that, prior to instruction, students assign to some words that are commonly used in teaching probability. The aim is to have some insight into the meanings that students bring to the classroom. The…

Using a new method of data analysis (statistical implication) and a method of postcorrelative treatment reveals students' preconceptions in conditional probability stemming from concrete references and makes explicit the procedures of problem solving that reflect these conceptions. (24 references) (Author/MKR)

Honors the contribution of Efraim Fischbein to the study and analysis of probabilistic thinking. Summarizes Fischbein's early work, then focuses on the role of intuition in mathematical and scientific thinking; the development of probabilistic thinking; and the influence of instruction on that development. (Author/MM)

Identifies key questions concerning children's intuitions and conceptions of probabilistic notions. Research on the theoretical framework for probability studies, misconceptions and strategies, and pupil attainment is reviewed, and the methodology is evaluated. Finally, implications for classroom practice are discussed. (MNS)

Presents a theoretical proposal of a methodology for the teaching of probability theory. Discusses the importance of the epistemological approach of Lakatos and the perspective of the conceptual change. Discusses research using a proposed didactic method with Spanish high school students (N=6). Concludes that significant differences on all…

Arguing that the teaching of stochastic processes should reflect the experience and reality of the student, the author urges concentration on fundamental ideas. The development of intuition should be encouraged, and to this end continuity in teaching and a spiralled curriculum are important. (SD)

The explicit, experimental introduction of a series of logical inconsistencies is described and recommended as a means of disrupting the faulty logic and, thereby, enhancing the use of more appropriate probabilistic reasoning by graduate students enrolled in an introductory inferential statistics course. (14 references) (JJK)

Previous research has shown that--due to the extensive attention spent to proportional reasoning in mathematics education--many students have a strong tendency to apply linear or proportional models anywhere, even in situations where they are not applicable. This phenomenon is sometimes referred to as the "illusion of linearity". For example, in…

A series of 13 survey questions based on a 50-50 spinner is used to explore school students' understanding of statistical variation in a chance setting. Five questions set the context by assessing the understanding of theoretical expectation and representation of repeated trials in a stacked dot (line) plot. Four questions provide opportunity to…