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Direct linkGriffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B. – Cognition, 2007
People's reactions to coincidences are often cited as an illustration of the irrationality of human reasoning about chance. We argue that coincidences may be better understood in terms of rational statistical inference, based on their functional role in processes of causal discovery and theory revision. We present a formal definition of…
Descriptors: Probability, Statistical Inference, Bayesian Statistics, Theories
