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Direct linkZhao, Jiaying; Crupi, Vincenzo; Tentori, Katya; Fitelson, Branden; Osherson, Daniel – Cognition, 2012
Bayesian orthodoxy posits a tight relationship between conditional probability and updating. Namely, the probability of an event "A" after learning "B" should equal the conditional probability of "A" given "B" prior to learning "B". We examine whether ordinary judgment conforms to the orthodox view. In three experiments we found substantial…
Descriptors: Probability, Thinking Skills, Correlation, Experiments
