In this paper we consider the problem of modelling when students end their session in an online mathematics educational system. Being able to model this accurately will help us optimize the way content is presented and consumed. This is done by modelling the probability of an action being the last in a session, which we denote as the…

The analysis of log data generated by online educational systems is an important task for improving the systems, and furthering our knowledge of how students learn. This paper uses previously unseen log data from Edulab, the largest provider of digital learning for mathematics in Denmark, to analyse the sessions of its users, where 1.08 million…

Understanding large-scale patterns in student course enrollment is a problem of great interest to university administrators and educational researchers. Yet important decisions are often made without a good quantitative framework of the process underlying student choices. We propose a probabilistic approach to modelling course enrollment…

In this paper, we introduce a mathematical model for collaborative learning and the answering process for multiple-choice questions. The collaborative learning model is inspired by the Ising spin model and the model for answering multiple-choice questions is based on their difficulty level. An intensive simulation study predicts the possibility of…

There are some mathematical learning models of collaborative learning, with which we can learn how students obtain knowledge and we expect to design effective education. We put together those models and classify into three categories; model by differential equations, so-called Ising spin and a stochastic process equation. Some of the models do not…

In this proposal, I introduce a method for modeling the dynamics of a sixth-grade student's accommodation of his fractions scheme to include a disembedding operation (Steffe & Olive, 2010). I will describe a three-part approach consisting of a constructivist teaching experiment, retrospective analysis, and stochastic modeling of the student's…

The author of this paper submits the thesis that learning requires doing; only through inquiry is learning achieved, and hence this paper proposes a programme of use of a modified Moore method in a Probability and Mathematical Statistics (PAMS) course sequence to teach students PAMS. Furthermore, the author of this paper opines that set theory…

An integration of two different approaches to the psychology of causal induction is proposed that overcomes the problems associated with each. The proposal results in a causal power theory of the probabilistic contrast model of P. W. Cheng and L. R. Novick (1990). (SLD)

The interest in developmental sequences and learning hierarchies is growing. One approach to the study of such sequences is to gather data on several variables, each of which corresponds to a stage, step, or phase in the sequence and to examine the associations between the variables as displayed in a contingency table. If the variables are…

This paper proposes a generalization of Thurstonian probabilistic choice models for analyzing both multiple preference responses and their relationships. The approach is illustrated by modeling data from two multivariate preference experiments. Preliminary data analyses show that the extension can yield an adequate representation of multivariate…

Methodological issues of using a class of neural networks called Mixture Density Networks (MDN) for discriminant analysis are discussed. MDN models have the advantage of having a rigorous probabilistic interpretation, and they have proven to be a viable alternative as a classification procedure in discrete domains. Both classification and…

A computer program to perform a Monte Carlo simulation of counting experiments was written. The program was based on a mathematical derivation which started with counts in a time interval. The time interval was subdivided to form a binomial distribution with no two counts in the same subinterval. Then the number of subintervals was extended to…

A statistical model for citation processes is presented as a particular version of a nonhomogenous birth process. The mean value function and special transition probabilities, which can readily be calculated on the basis of known and estimated parameters, give essential information on the change of citation impact in time. (10 references) (KRN)

A complete enumeration method and a Monte Carlo method are presented to calculate the probability distribution of arbitrary statistics of adjacency matrices when these matrices have the uniform distribution conditional on given row and column sums, and possibly on a given set of structural zeros. (SLD)

The challenge of multiple comparisons is to maximize the power for answering specific research questions, while still maintaining control over the rate of Type I error. Several multiple comparison procedures have been suggested to meet this challenge. The stagewise protected procedure (SPP) of A. J. Klockars and G. R. Hancock tests null hypotheses…