This paper investigates two specific probabilistic biases which middle graders usually exhibit when reasoning about probability and randomness on assessment items. We discuss how students' reasoning about key probability concepts undergirds statistics literacy related to randomness, independence, and the likelihood of future events based on past…

Probability is generally considered one of the most challenging areas to teach in mathematics education due to its intricate nature. However, the simulation-based teaching method can increase students' accessibility significantly to the probability problems because it enables students to resolve the problems with minimal mathematical skills. By…

We have extended two perspectives of proportional reasoning to solve problems based in probability. Four future middle grade teachers were enrolled in a mathematics content course that emphasized reasoning about multiplication with quantities. The course expected future teachers to generate and explain methods for solving proportions. Probability…

The objective of this article is to contribute to the documented dearth of research on teachers' probabilistic knowledge. Prospective teachers of elementary school mathematics were asked to identify which result from five flips of a fair coin was least likely to occur. Participants, instead of being presented with sequences, were presented with…

An understanding of conditional probability is essential for students of inferential statistics as it is used in Null Hypothesis Tests. Conditional probability is also used in Bayes' theorem, in the interpretation of medical screening tests and in quality control procedures. This study examines the understanding of conditional probability of…

In Maori medium schools, research that investigates children's mathematical computation with number and connections they might make to mathematical ideas in other strands is limited. This paper seeks to share ideas elicited in a task-based observation and interview with one child about the number ideas she utilises to solve a problem requiring…

This paper reports on one aspect of a wider study that investigated a selection of final year pre-service primary teachers' responses to four probability tasks. The tasks focused on foundational ideas of probability including sample space, independence, variation and expectation. Responses suggested that strongly held intuitions appeared to…

Probabilistic misconceptions are common among students and teachers alike. This study involved 18 preservice secondary mathematics teachers and documents some of the common probabilistic misconceptions held by these preservice teachers. Data was collected through a survey involving eight probability problems and two semi-structured interviews.…

This article discusses results from interviews investigating students' understanding of probabilistic independence and mutual exclusivity. Three students compared several sets of events in various sample spaces. Data collected from these interviews gives evidence of a temporal conception wherein students think of independence as reliant on a…

This research study investigates how pre-service teachers integrate statistical content, students' thinking, and pedagogy as they examine how 11- to 12-year olds develop mathematically. The findings provide insights into: a) how pre-service teachers identify some of the difficulties that students commonly have, and b) what pedagogical approaches…

Students explored variation and expectation in a probability activity at the end of the first year of a 3-year longitudinal study across grades 4-6. The activity involved experiments in tossing coins both manually and with simulation using the graphing software, "TinkerPlots." Initial responses indicated that the students were aware of…

Within the limited field of research on teachers' probabilistic knowledge, incorrect, inconsistent and even inexplicable responses to probabilistic tasks are most often accounted for by utilizing theories, frameworks and models, which are based upon heuristic and informal reasoning. More recently, the emergence of new research based upon informal…

Our study, situated within graduate-level courses for teachers focused on statistics, illustrates work across institutions for making sense of teachers' statistical thinking. Using a common assessment instrument, we identify and discuss four items that indicate strong statistical thinking and two that highlight concepts with which teachers…

In this paper seventh-grade pupils' ways of handling aspects of probability have been investigated. The aspects in question were embedded in a dice game, based on the total of two dice. Four different set-ups of dice were included in the situation in which they were up to explore optimal strategies for winning the game. How children understand…

The purpose of the study was to determine whether students had knowledge of the extension rule (the conjunction of two or more events cannot be greater than the probability of any one of those events) and understanding of conjunction by giving a test of multiplicative probabilities. Involved were 598 students enrolled in introductory psychology…