Data from a moderately-selective state university in the Midwest is used to cross-examine the most appropriate data analytical techniques for predicting versus explaining college student persistence decisions. The current research provides an overview of the relative benefits of models specializing in prediction versus explanation with particular…

Recent methods have sought to improve precision in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) by utilizing data from large observational datasets for covariate adjustment. For example, consider an RCT aimed at evaluating a new algebra curriculum, in which a few dozen schools are randomly assigned to treatment (new curriculum) or control (standard…

This study aimed to extend previous literature comparing continuous methods of data collection to estimation data, but this time implementing the data collection procedures within a group discrete trial teaching format with three individuals diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder. Group discrete trial teaching was conducted in a classroom setting…

In higher education, predictive analytics can provide actionable insights to diverse stakeholders such as administrators, instructors, and students. Separate feature sets are typically used for different prediction tasks, e.g., student activity logs for predicting in-course performance and registrar data for predicting long-term college success.…

This study evaluated the forecasting accuracy of trend estimation methods applied to time-series data from computer adaptive tests (CATs). Data were collected roughly once a month over the course of a school year. We evaluated the forecasting accuracy of two regression-based growth estimation methods (ordinary least squares and Theil-Sen). The…

This paper outlines the development of practical measures of productive persistence using digital learning system data. Practical measurement refers to data collection and analysis approaches originating from improvement science; productive persistence refers to the combination of academic and social mindsets as well as learning behaviours that…

This paper reports on a study that adopted a systematic approach to school-level early warning. The study examined areas where research consistently shows schools commonly experience decline: (1) leadership stability; (2) talent management; (3) organizational culture; (4) financial operations; and (5) instructional programming. Rather than relying…

Knowledge tracing is a fundamental area of educational data modeling that aims at gaining a better understanding of the learning occurring in tutoring systems. Knowledge tracing models fit various parameters on observed student performance and are evaluated through several goodness of fit metrics. Fitted parameter values are of crucial interest in…

With the adoption of Learning Management Systems (LMSs) in educational institutions, a lot of data has become available describing students' online behavior. Many researchers have used these data to predict student performance. This has led to a rather diverse set of findings, possibly related to the diversity in courses and predictor variables…

Recent reforms emphasize a shift in how students should learn and demonstrate knowledge of science. These reforms call for students to learn content knowledge using science and engineering practices, creating integrated science knowledge. While there is existing literature about the development of integrated science knowledge assessments, few…

The District of Columbia Public Schools (DCPS) has prioritized efforts to support students' social and emotional learning (SEL) competencies, such as perseverance and social awareness. To measure students' SEL competencies and the school experiences that promote SEL competencies (school climate), DCPS began administering annual surveys to…

Student learning objectives (SLOs) have become an increasingly popular tool for teacher evaluations as an alternative to Value-added Models (VAMs). However, the use of SLOs faces two major challenges. First, the target setting is mostly subjective and arbitrary. Second, there is little evidence on the reliability and validity of the tool. In this…

Student models for adaptive systems may not model collaborative learning optimally. Past research has either focused on modeling individual learning or for collaboration, has focused on group dynamics or group processes without predicting learning. In the current paper, we adjust the Additive Factors Model (AFM), a standard logistic regression…

Student models for adaptive systems may not model collaborative learning optimally. Past research has either focused on modeling individual learning or for collaboration, has focused on group dynamics or group processes without predicting learning. In the current paper, we adjust the Additive Factors Model (AFM), a standard logistic regression…

Predictive analytics in education can offer a benefit as long as educators heed the differences between how the tools are used in industry and how they should be used differently in schooling. Perhaps most important, teachers already know a great deal about their students--far more than an investor knows about a stock or a baseball scout about an…