Predicting student academic performance has long been an important research topic in many academic disciplines. The present study is the first study that develops and compares four types of mathematical models to predict student academic performance in engineering dynamics--a high-enrollment, high-impact, and core course that many engineering…

A recent resurgence in logical-rule theories of categorization has motivated the development of a class of models that predict not only choice probabilities but also categorization response times (RTs; Fific, Little, & Nosofsky, 2010). The new models combine mental-architecture and random-walk approaches within an integrated framework and…

Previous methods for estimating the conditional standard error of measurement (CSEM) at specific score or ability levels are critically discussed, and a brief summary of prior empirical results is given. A new method is developed which avoids theoretical problems inherent in some prior methods, is easy to implement, and estimates not only a…

Describes and compares eight methods of estimating the parameters of the Zipf distribution. (CLB)

A procedure for inferring the validity of a selection test as a predictor of some criterion when the available data are limited due to prior selection is described. (Author/JKS)

Argues that the gamma mixture of Poisson processes, for all its perceived defects, can be used to make predictions regarding future library book circulations of a quality adequate for general management requirements. The use of the model is extensively illustrated with data from two academic libraries. (Nine references) (CLB)

Discussion of models for library circulation data highlights a new statistical prediction model that creates a flexible regression curve. Linear graphs that result from previous models are discussed, bivariate discrete distributions are explained, and graphs that show library circulation for one year at a time are presented. (nine references) (LRW)

A method is developed for testing a priori multiple regression models. The method allows one to specify in advance as many unstandardized or standardized coefficients as one wants to and allows the remaining slopes to be free to vary. (Author/PN)

The suitability of the beta binomial test model for criterion referenced testing was investigated, first by considering whether underlying assumptions are realistic, and second, by examining the robustness of the model. Results suggest that the model may have practical value. (Author/RD)

The present study compared six methods, two of which utilize the content structure of items, to estimate total-test scores using 450 students and 60 items of the 110-item Stanford Mental Arithmetic Test. Three methods yielded fairly good estimates of the total-test score. (Author/RL)

Presents a mathematical-categorization model using multiple-step chains of reasoning (CORs) and memory for examples. In 5 experiments, 144 undergraduates memorized descriptions of fictional people, then made predictions from incomplete descriptions using 1-, 2-, or 3-step CORs. The multiple-step context model with one- and two-step inference…

Four global memory models were evaluated in 3 recognition memory experiments with 30 college students. Experiments provide receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Data give a clear idea of the behavior of signal and noise distributions in recognition memory. Ways in which results support revision of current models are discussed. (SLD)

Based on sample data representing five years of monthly circulation totals from 50 academic libraries in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, and Ohio, a study was conducted to determine the most efficient smoothing forecasting methods for academic libraries. Smoothing forecasting methods were chosen because they have been characterized…

A review of cross-validation shrinkage formulas is presented which focuses on the theoretical and practical problems in the use of various formulas. Practical guidelines for use of both formulas and empirical cross-validation are provided. A comparison of results using these formulas in a range of situations is then presented. The result of these…

The impact of misspecification on the estimation, testing, and improvement of structural equation models was assessed via a population study in which a prototypical latent variable model was misspecified. Results provide insights into the maximum likelihood estimator versus a limited two-stage least squares estimator in LISREL. (TJH)