Item response theory (IRT) models are often compared with respect to predictive performance to determine the dimensionality of rating scale data. However, such model comparisons could be biased toward nested-dimensionality IRT models (e.g., the bifactor model) when comparing those models with non-nested-dimensionality IRT models (e.g., a…

The world's move to a global economy has an impact on the high rate of student academic failure. Higher education, as the affected party, is considered crucial in reducing student academic failure. This study aims to construct a prediction (predictive model) that can forecast students' time to graduation in developing countries such as Indonesia,…

We evaluate the feasibility of developing predictive models of rater behavior, that is, "rater-specific" models for predicting the scores produced by a rater under operational conditions. In the present study, the dependent variable is the score assigned to essays by a rater, and the predictors are linguistic attributes of the essays…

Colleges have increasingly turned to predictive analytics to target at-risk students for additional support. Most of the predictive analytic applications in higher education are proprietary, with private companies offering little transparency about their underlying models. We address this lack of transparency by systematically comparing two…

Educational stakeholders would be better informed if they could use their students' formative assessments results and personal background attributes to predict the conditions for achieving favorable learning outcomes, and conversely, to gain awareness of the "at-risk" signals to prevent unfavorable or worst-case scenarios from happening.…

Maintaining and cultivating student engagement is critical for learning. Understanding factors affecting student engagement can help in designing better courses and improving student retention. The large number of participants in massive open online courses (MOOCs) and data collected from their interactions on the MOOC open up avenues for studying…

Among community college leaders and others interested in reforms to improve student success, there is growing interest in adopting machine learning (ML) techniques to predict credential completion. However, ML algorithms are often complex and are not readily accessible to practitioners for whom a simpler set of near-term measures may serve as…

The evaluation of text complexity is an important topic in education. While this objective has been addressed by approaches using lexical and syntactic analysis for decades, semantic complexity is less common, and the recent research works that tackle this question rely on machine learning algorithms that are hardly explainable and are not…

Colleges have increasingly turned to predictive analytics to target at-risk students for additional support. Most of the predictive analytic applications in higher education are proprietary, with private companies offering little transparency about their underlying models. We address this lack of transparency by systematically comparing two…

Educational institutions increasingly recognize the role that student belonging plays in retention. Many studies in this area focus on helping students improve a sense of belonging before they matriculate or identifying belonging as a reason for their departure. This study measures students' sense of belonging at key transition points during the…

Physics education research (PER) has used quantitative modeling techniques to explore learning, affect, and other aspects of physics education. However, these studies have rarely examined the predictive output of the models, instead focusing on the inferences or causal relationships observed in various data sets. This research introduces a modern…

A predictive model for the USMLE Step 1 was created based on NBME Comprehensive Basic Sciences Self-Assessment (CBSSA) exams. All second year medical students at a southwestern university from 2014-2016 took a NBME CBSSA exam under controlled testing conditions six months (January) and three months (April) prior to their Step 1. A multiple…

The 3-year graduation rate is a rarely measured metric in higher education compared to its 4- or 6- year graduation rate counterparts. For the first time in college (FTIC) students to graduate in three years, they must come with certain skills, abilities, plans, supports, or motivations. This project considers two distinct but interrelated ways of…

This paper reports the findings of a research using marks of students in learning activities of an online module to build a predictive model of performance for the final assessment of the module. The objectives were (1) to compare the performances of students of two cohorts in terms of continuous learning assessment marks and final learning…

Dropout remains a persistent challenge within high school education. In this paper, we present a case study on automatically detecting whether a student is at-risk of dropout within a diverse school district in Texas. We predict whether a student will drop out in a future school year from data on students' discipline, attendance, course-taking,…