A research project developed a computer program for analyzing time series quasi-experimental data. The program generates a nonstationary, integrated moving average time series model; it is used to estimate a parameter which indexes the instantaneous change in level of the time series due to a predesignated treatment. The entire method is based on…

An alternative item-selection procedure for use with Owen's Bayesian adaptive testing strategy is proposed. This procedure is, by design, faster than Owen's original procedure because it searches only part of the total item pool. Item selections are, however, identical for both methods. After a conceptual development of the rapid-search procedure,…

False-positive and false-negative dicisions are the fundamental errors committed with a mastery test; yet the estimation of the likelihood of committing these errors has not been investigated. Accordingly, two methods of estimating the likelihood of committing these errors are described and then investigated using Monte Carlo techniques.…

The Computer-Assisted Data Analysis (CADA) Monitor is a set of conversational-language interactive computer programs that permit relatively inexperienced persons to perform relatively complex statistical data analysis. The Monitor leads the user through an analysis on a step-by-step basis providing the necessary direction, information, and…

A computer simulation of Bayes' Theorem was conducted in order to determine the probability that an examinee was a master conditional upon his test score. The inputs were: number of mastery states assumed, test length, prior expectation of masters in the examinee population, and conditional probability of a master getting a randomly selected test…

The technical problems involved in obtaining Bayesian model estimates for the regression parameters in m similar groups are studied. The available computer programs, BPREP (BASIC), and BAYREG, both written in FORTRAN, require an amount of computer processing that does not encourage regular use. These programs are analyzed so that the performance…

This project is concerned with the development and implementation of some new statistical techniques that will facilitate a continuing input of information about the student to the instructional manager so that individualization of instruction can be managed effectively. The source of this informational input is typically a short…

This study developed a two-parameter linear probabilistic model of criterion referenced measurement, which relates an examinee's observed ability to his true ability through a guessing parameter and a carelessness parameter, both of which are probabilities. This model was applied to a survey of 10- and 14-year-old Australian students to estimate…

Latent trait theory supposes that, in testing situations, examinee performance on a test can be predicted (or explained) by defining examinee characteristics, referred to as traits, estimating scores for examinees on these traits and using the scores to predict or explain test performance (Lord and Novick, 1968). In view of the breakthroughs in…