Five studies investigated (a) children's ability to use the dependent and independent probabilities of events to make causal inferences and (b) the interaction between such inferences and domain-specific knowledge. In Experiment 1, preschoolers used patterns of dependence and independence to make accurate causal inferences in the domains of…

Describes the development of a curriculum to improve problem- solving ability when faced with uncertainty by (1) encouraging students to examine their thought processes, (2) presenting fallacious arguments, and (3) providing better tools for decision making. Relevant psychological research, some problems of teacher training, and a small-scale…

Discussion of expert systems and computerized adaptive tests describes two versions of EXSPRT, a new approach that combines uncertain inference in expert systems with sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) stopping rules. Results of two studies comparing EXSPRT to adaptive mastery testing based on item response theory and SPRT approaches are…