Colleges have increasingly turned to predictive analytics to target at-risk students for additional support. Most of the predictive analytic applications in higher education are proprietary, with private companies offering little transparency about their underlying models. We address this lack of transparency by systematically comparing two…

This report projects education requirements linked to forecasted job growth for all 50 states and the District of Columbia from 2021 through 2031. It complements a larger national report that projects education demand by occupation and industry for the same period. The national report finds that by 2031, 72 percent of all jobs nationally will…

Inter-rater reliability, commonly assessed by intra-class correlation coefficient ICC, is an important index for describing the extent to which there is consistency amongst two or more raters in assigned measures. In organizational research, the data structure is often hierarchical and designs deviate substantially from the ideal of a balanced…

The 2011 NAEP-TIMSS linking study conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) was designed to predict Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) scores for the U.S. states that participated in 2011 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) mathematics and science assessment of eighth-grade students.…

This report describes work using nationally representative 2005 data from the School Nutrition Dietary Assessment-III (SNDA-III) study to develop a simulation model to predict the potential implications of changes in policies or practices related to school meals and school food environments. The model focuses on three domains of outcomes: (1) the…

As a means of studying the present public catalogs and possible catalog format alternatives at the Iowa State University library, a 6-week queuing study was conducted. Objectives of the study were (1) to determine the correlation between other library statistics (e.g., door counts and circulation records) and use of the public catalogs; (2) to…

This report examines the relationship between various characteristics of students with disabilities and the probability that they would participate in the NAEP assessments, given the current methods of accommodation adopted by their state. The report describes the methodological approach which calculates for each state an expected inclusion rate…

A model for predicting student credit hours (SCH) over a 2-year period was developed at the University of South Florida. A major application of the model would be to estimate the expected loss of upper-level SCH that would occur as a result of reduced lower-level enrollment. Attention was focused on the long-range effect of lower-level enrollment…

A study attempted to relate the frequency and intensity of the use of specific drugs by college students to reasons for use, with the objective of differentiating types of users. Results indicate that the relationship between reason for use and intensity and frequency differs by drug. (JN)

The diffusion and U.S. geographic distribution of primary care physicians are discussed in three papers. The literature on the diffusion issue is reviewed in the first paper. After introducing diffusion concepts, measures, and problems, current evidence for the diffusion of physicians are assessed, and efforts to forecast future needs for…

The development of time-series revenue projections for University of Alaska Budget Request Units (BRUs) is described. Fiscal planning modes in higher education are reviewed, along with the attributes of judgmental, time-series, and causal forecasting techniques. The following six submodels comprise the necessary dimensions of the comprehensive…

The correspondence between Medical College Admission Test scores and undergraduate science grades is examined, and the role that medical college selectivity plays in moderating the relationship is explored. Data are from all applicants in the 1981-82 entering class for whom complete information was available. (MSE)

If an effective school is defined as a school that causes student improvement on a number of important educational outcomes, the problem of identifying effective schools becomes one of establishing legitimate predictions of student performance and comparing those predictions to actual student or school outcomes. In attempting to identify effective…

As an alternative for or adjunct to paper-and-pencil tests for predicting personnel performance, the United States Air Force studied the use of peer ratings as an evaluative tool. Purpose of this study was to evaluate the psychometric characteristics of peer ratings among Air Force basic trainees. Peer ratings were obtained from more than 27,000…

A project was undertaken in the San Diego Community College District to develop a consistent districtwide placement testing program using the same test instruments and uniform cut-off scores for placement in English and mathematics courses. As part of the project, a study was conducted to correlate English placement test scores and grades for all…