Human reasoning about and with uncertainty is often at odds with the principles of classical probability. Order effects, conjunction biases, and sure-thing inclinations suggest that an entirely different set of probability axioms could be developed and indeed may be needed to describe such habits. Recent work in diverse fields, including cognitive…

We examine the challenges of teaching probability through the use of modelling. We argue how an integrated modelling approach might facilitate a coordinated understanding of distribution by marrying theoretical and data-oriented perspectives and present probability as more connected to the social lives of modern-day students. Research is, however,…

This article summarizes a conceptual framework and simple mathematical methods of estimating the probability that one event was a necessary cause of another, as interpreted by lawmakers. We show that the fusion of observational and experimental data can yield informative bounds that, under certain circumstances, meet legal criteria of causation.…

The modern era of professional baseball playoffs began in 1903, when the champions of the American League and the National League played the first World Series. Except for one year, 1904, this playoff system was maintained until 1969. Beginning in 1969, each of the two leagues in Major League Baseball (MLB) was divided into two divisions to…

There are some mathematical learning models of collaborative learning, with which we can learn how students obtain knowledge and we expect to design effective education. We put together those models and classify into three categories; model by differential equations, so-called Ising spin and a stochastic process equation. Some of the models do not…

The quantitative results of Sources of Self-Efficacy in Science Courses-Physics (SOSESC-P) are presented as a logistic regression predicting the passing of students in introductory Physics with Calculus I, overall as well as disaggregated by gender. Self-efficacy as a theory to explain human behavior change [Bandura [1977] "Psychological…

Various theoretical equations have been proposed to predict response rate as a function of the rate of reinforcement. If both the rate and probability of reinforcement are considered, a simple identity, defining equation, or "law" holds. This identity places algebraic constraints on the allowable forms of our mathematical models and can help…

The topic of this article is the interpretation of structural equation modeling (SEM) solutions. Its purpose is to augment structural modeling's metatheoretic resources while enhancing awareness of how problematic is the causal significance of SEM-parameter solutions. Part I focuses on the nonuniqueness and consequent dubious interpretability of…

This paper presents and tests a general model to predict emergent exchange patterns and power differences in reciprocal exchange networks when individual actors follow the norm of reciprocity. With an interesting qualification, the experimental results reported here support the power-dependence approach (Emerson 1972a, b): those who acquire the…

Computerized adaptive testing is subject to security problems, as the item bank content remains operative over long periods and administration time is flexible for examinees. Spreading the content of a part of the item bank could lead to an overestimation of the examinees' trait level. The most common way of reducing this risk is to impose a…

Three potential models for the 2 X 2 contingency table are discussed: (1) the hypergeometric Independence Trial; (2) the double-binomial Comparative Trial; and (3) the multinomial Double Dichotomy Trial. Subsequently, the critical regions of seven statistical tests are evaluated within each of these models. (TJH)

Consider the nonparametric regression model Y = m(X)+ [tau](X)[epsilon], where X and [epsilon] are independent random variables, [epsilon] has a median of zero and variance [sigma][squared], [tau] is some unknown function used to model heteroscedasticity, and m(X) is an unknown function reflecting some conditional measure of location associated…

We focus on the problem of ignoring statistical independence. A binomial experiment is used to determine whether judges could match, based on looks alone, dogs to their owners. The experimental design introduces dependencies such that the probability of a given judge correctly matching a dog and an owner changes from trial to trial. We show how…

B. De Finetti's "Fundamental Theorem of Probability" is reformulated as a computable linear programming problem. The theorem is substantially extended, and shown to have fundamental implications for the theory and practice of statistics. It supports an operational meaning for the partial assertion of prevision via asserted bounds. The…

The phenomenon of 2 x 2 x 2 arrays having nonmaximal rank with positive probability, pointed out by J. Kruskal (1989), is generalized to 2 x "n" x "n" arrays. It is concluded that a pair of asymmetric square matrices can be diagonalized simultaneously with positive probability. (SLD)