This paper deals with a brief history of probability theory and its applications to Jacob Bernoulli's famous law of large numbers and theory of errors in observations or measurements. Included are the major contributions of Jacob Bernoulli and Laplace. It is written to pay the tricentennial tribute to Jacob Bernoulli, since the year 2013…

In recent years, the usefulness of affect detection for educational software has become clear. Accurate detection of student affect can support a wide range of interventions with the potential to improve student affect, increase engagement, and improve learning. In addition, accurate detection of student affect could play an essential role in…

A long-standing challenge for knowledge tracing is how to update estimates of multiple subskills that underlie a single observable step. We characterize approaches to this problem by how they model knowledge tracing, fit its parameters, predict performance, and update subskill estimates. Previous methods allocated blame or credit among subskills…

This article describes how a Brier score analysis can be used as an evaluative tool to estimate the predictive accuracy of a course placement policy that was established based on professional or subjective judgment. The policy being evaluated uses the score received on the mathematics portion of the SAT examination as the primary mechanism to…

In reaction to the OECD-wide declining trend in scientific enrollments, the Italian government launched a policy in 2005 to promote the study of science at the university. The policy promoted extra-curricular activities for secondary school students in Chemistry, Physics, Math and Materials Science. This article evaluates the policy impact on…

A central puzzle for theories of choice is that people's preferences between options can be reversed by the presence of decoy options (that are not chosen) or by the presence of other irrelevant options added to the choice set. Three types of reversal effect reported in the decision-making literature, the attraction, compromise, and similarity…

A recent comparative analysis of alternative interval estimation approaches and procedures has shown that confidence intervals (CIs) for true raw scores determined with the Score method--which uses the normal approximation to the binomial distribution--have actual coverage probabilities that are closest to their nominal level. It has also recently…

This paper (1) presents a conceptual framework for analyzing the mathematics addressed in probability lessons and (2) uses the framework to compare the mathematics that two teachers with contrasting teaching approaches addressed in class when teaching the topic of probability. One teaching approach aimed to develop understanding; the other…

Nowadays, Web based platforms are quite common in any university, supporting a very diversified set of applications and services. Ranging from personal management to student evaluation processes, Web based platforms are doing a great job providing a very flexible way of working, promote student enrolment, and making access to academic information…

There have been many discussions of how Type I errors should be controlled when many hypotheses are tested (e.g., all possible comparisons of means, correlations, proportions, the coefficients in hierarchical models, etc.). By and large, researchers have adopted familywise (FWER) control, though this practice certainly is not universal. Familywise…

This paper presents a comparison of Virginia's mathematics performance expectations with the common core state standards for mathematics. The comparison focuses on number and quantity, algebra, functions, geometry, and statistics and probability. (Contains 1 footnote.)

College students (N = 151) completed three in-class mathematics assignments that varied with respect to the order of short, medium, and long multiplication problems, including a short-to-long order, a long-to-short order, and a random order. Problem order within assignments did not significantly affect work accuracy, completion time, or assignment…

Mokken scale analysis can be used for scaling under nonparametric item response theory models. The results may, however, not reflect the underlying dimensionality of data. Various features of Mokken scale analysis--the H coefficient, Mokken scale conditions, and algorithms--may explain this result. In this article, three new H-based objective…

This article proposes an intuitive approach for predictive discriminant analysis with mixed continuous, dichotomous, and ordered categorical variables that are defined via an underlying multivariate normal distribution with a threshold specification. The classification rule is based on the comparison of the observed data logarithm probability…

Accurate and accessible expressions for the probability of having a matching birthday are obtained by using Stirling's formula and Taylor series. For interest, the results are applied to the planets of our solar system.