Presidential elections can be forecast using information from political and economic conditions, polls, and a statistical model of changes in public opinion over time. However, these "knowns" about how to make a good presidential election forecast come with many unknowns due to the challenges of evaluating forecast calibration and…

The central role of the propensity score analysis (PSA) in observational studies is for causal inference; as such, PSA is often used for making causal claims in research articles. However, there are still some issues for researchers to consider when making claims of causality using PSA results. This summary first briefly reviews PSA, followed by…

In this article, a Bayesian model selection approach is introduced that can select the best of a set of inequality and equality constrained hypotheses for contingency tables. The hypotheses are presented in terms of cell probabilities allowing researchers to test (in)equality constrained hypotheses in a format that is directly related to the data.…

This article discusses comparisons of means using exploratory and confirmatory approaches. Three methods are discussed: hypothesis testing, model selection based on information criteria, and Bayesian model selection. Throughout the article, an example is used to illustrate and evaluate the two approaches and the three methods. We demonstrate that…

Controversy surrounds the ranking of crime seriousness of white-collar crimes relative to street crimes, with early research suggesting the general public is indifferent to crimes of the elite, whereas more recent research indicates that the public thinks certain types of white-collar crime are serious. Building on prior research limitations and…

Most traditional models, frameworks, and findings that apply to the majority of students and faculty do not adequately apply to important subpopulations. The recommendations here will help researchers become more sensitive to the nuances among various educational subgroups, and to pay more attention to outliers.

Methods of probability modeling to analyze rater agreement are described, emphasizing their basic similarities and viewing them as variants of a common methodology. Statistical techniques for analyzing agreement data are described to address questions such as how many opinions are required to make a medical diagnosis with necessary accuracy. Kappa…

A model is proposed for the clinical synthesis of data from psychological tests of persons with visual impairments. The model integrates the concepts of the ideal type and Bayesian probability and compares actual test scores with ideal scores through use of a pattern similarity coefficient. A pilot study with Business Enterprise Program operators…

This Monte Carlo study examines whether, given various numbers of variables, treatments, and sample sizes, in a one-way multivariate analysis of variance, Type I error rates of the test approximations provided by the BMDP program, the Statistical Analysis System (SAS), and the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) for Roy's largest…

The challenges of modeling students' performance in simulation-based assessments include accounting for multiple aspects of knowledge and skill that arise in different situations and the conditional dependencies among multiple aspects of performance in a complex assessment. This paper describes a Bayesian approach to modeling and estimating…

Describes advances in capture-recapture modeling, including the biologically motivated emphasis on model-based hypothesis testing and the development of models for spatially stratified populations. Discusses the severe problems associated with count statistics reflecting unknown sampling fractions. (67 references) (KR)