Analytical techniques developed by the University of Texas at Austin to deal with problems of forecasting future enrollments, instructional workloads, and funding levels are considered. In order to project university enrollments, Texas public high school graduates were projected. In-migration rates were separated from survival rates,…

Admissions officers are convinced that the Scholastic Aptitude Test offers at least a better clue than high school grades alone as to how well prospective students are likely to perform in their first year of college. Bias is seen as only one of many explanations for score differences among groups. (MLW)

This paper reports changes in the professional knowledge, general knowledge, and communication skills components of the National Teacher Examinations and explains validation procedures. Research efforts to: (1) establish the tests' credibility and usefulness; (2) identify factors the tests measure; and (3) study their relationship to effective…

A study was conducted to determine variables which would predict smoking among 297 seventh graders and to test the validity of the variables in a followup one year later. The most valid predictors were number of friends and siblings who smoked and the intention to smoke in the future. (PP)

Describes advances in capture-recapture modeling, including the biologically motivated emphasis on model-based hypothesis testing and the development of models for spatially stratified populations. Discusses the severe problems associated with count statistics reflecting unknown sampling fractions. (67 references) (KR)

Describes the practice of federal evaluation of research impact through three approaches: retrospective methods; qualitative methods, including peer review; and quantitative methods. Recommended areas for study in federal research impact assessment are suggested, including predictive reliability, comparative studies, time and cost estimates,…

The focus of the session summarized in this paper was on how postsecondary educational institutions can better anticipate the future of higher education by using the "alternative futures approach to planning" model. The alternative futures model processes the best available information obtainable so that plausible alternative futures in…

The effect of demographic trends on Connecticut college enrollments from 1983 to 2000 is assessed. Attention is directed to the following: changes in the age distribution of Connecticut's population--1980 to 2000; statewide undergraduate enrollment projections to 2000; enrollment projections by enrollment status and full-time-equivalent…

A projection is provided of the Rancho Santiago Community College District's estimated future marginal costs of classroom teachers who, pursuant to California Assembly Bill 123, may retire using their highest 12 consecutive months' salary rather than the average of the 3 highest consecutive years as their final compensation. The projection was…

A method for forecasting the number of college graduates in the United Kingdom is described, and suggestions are offered about ways that society should react to influence declining enrollments and potential reductions in technologically skilled graduates. Consideration is given to the implications of recruiting noncollege-bound individuals to…

The view that there will be severe faculty shortages at Canadian universities in the 1990s is refuted, based on analyses concerning the demand for university teachers and the supply of doctoral graduates. In the 1990s when there is no foreseeable increase in university positions, replacement (i.e, due to retirement and mortality) will be the only…

The paper reviews the literature on problems associated with the assessment and placement of language minority students in special education and the utilization of a prereferral system and describes the development of the "Prereferral Screening Instrument" (PSI). The review of the literature looks at: the disproportionate representation…

The financial aspects of college loan burden are analyzed, based on the view that loan burden is a function of a borrower's capacity to repay the debt obligation. The following components of a financial model of indebtness are addressed: the stock of education loans at the time repayment begins, the repayment flow associated with each stock of…

A look at recent enrollment trends (including projected declines) is provided. The feared decline in postsecondary enrollments has not yet occurred; however, other economic, demographic, and social pressures contributed to the changing the character of the postsecondary student body. (MLW)

This article presents an in-class Monte Carlo demonstration, designed to demonstrate to students the implications of multicollinearity in a multiple regression study. In the demonstration, students already familiar with multiple regression concepts are presented with a scenario in which the "true" relationship between the response and…