This article shows that the mean and covariance structure of the predetermined autoregressive latent trajectory (ALT) model are very flexible. As a result, the shape of the modeled growth curve can be quite different from what one might expect at first glance. This is illustrated with several numerical examples that show that, for example, a…

The Keys to the White House is a historically-based system for predicting the result of the popular vote in American presidential elections. The Keys system tracks the big picture of how well the party holding the White House has governed and does not shift with events of the campaign. This model gives specificity to the idea that it is…

In a provocative and influential paper, Jesse Rothstein (2010) finds that standard value added models (VAMs) suggest implausible future teacher effects on past student achievement, a finding that obviously cannot be viewed as causal. This is the basis of a falsification test (the Rothstein falsification test) that appears to indicate bias in VAM…

Predicting the future is now in the hands of K12 administrators. While for years districts have collected thousands of pieces of student data, educators have been using them only for data-driven decision-making or formative assessments, which give a "rear-view" perspective only. Now, using predictive analysis--the pulling together of data over…

This article outlines shortcomings of currently used university admissions tests and discusses ways in which they could potentially be improved, summarizing two projects designed to enhance college and university admissions. The projects were inspired by the augmented theory of successful intelligence, according to which successful intelligence…

In an uncertain economy, reliable information about tomorrow's labor market can be a valuable tool in career planning. Understanding the future workforce helps an individual prepare for his/her place in it. When choosing among careers--or assisting others who are making such choices--it helps to know a few basics: the types and number of jobs…

We develop a model of induced innovation that applies to medical research. Our model yields three empirical predictions. First, initial death rates and subsequent research effort should be positively correlated. Second, research effort should be associated with more rapid mortality declines. Third, as a byproduct of targeting the most common…

In recent years, there has been some dispute over the appropriate way to model decision making in professional sports leagues. In particular, Szymanski and Kesenne (2004) argue that formulating the decision-making problem in a noncooperative game leads to radically different conclusions about the nature of competition in sports leagues. The author…

Monotone methods enable comparative static analysis without the restrictive assumptions of the implicit-function theorem. Ease of use and flexibility in solving comparative static and game-theory problems have made monotone methods popular in the economics literature and in graduate courses, but they are still absent from undergraduate…

This article describes the early outcomes of an ongoing project at the University of South Florida in Tampa that involves using a logistics regression formula derived from pre-matriculation characteristics to predict the risk of individual student attrition. In this piece, the authors will describe the results of the prediction formula and the…

This Eurydice report contains more than 30 detailed structural indicators, up-to-date figures, definitions, country notes and a short analysis of recent key policy developments and reforms in five areas: early childhood education and care, achievement in basic skills, early leaving from education and training, higher education and graduate…

The purpose of the recently proposed "p[subscript rep]" statistic is to estimate the probability of concurrence, that is, the probability that a replicate experiment yields an effect of the same sign (Killeen, 2005a). The influential journal "Psychological Science" endorses "p[subscript rep]" and recommends its use…

This "Practitioner's Guide to Growth Models," commissioned by the Technical Issues in Large-Scale Assessment (TILSA) and Accountability Systems & Reporting (ASR), collaboratives of the "Council of Chief State School Officers," describes different ways to calculate student academic growth and to make judgments about the…

Since 1959, ACT has collected and reported data on students' academic readiness for college. This report provides a college and career readiness snapshot of the ACT-tested high school class of 2011. ACT has long defined college and career readiness as the acquisition of the knowledge and skills a student needs to enroll and succeed in…

For more than two decades, the enrollment funnel has shaped how enrollment managers planned their enrollment strategies. It was a reliable, effective model for enrollment behavior, and campuses could shape their strategies around it. In recent years, however, demographic changes as well as technological advances have rendered the traditional…