We introduce the basics of the Monte Carlo method that allows computing areas and definite integrals, by means of the generation of long sequences of random numbers. The areas of some nontrivial shapes are computed, showing the convergence towards their exact values. The application of the method to the computation of definite integrals is also…

In this digital ITEMS module, Dr. Brian Leventhal and Dr. Allison Ames provide an overview of "Monte Carlo simulation studies" (MCSS) in "item response theory" (IRT). MCSS are utilized for a variety of reasons, one of the most compelling being that they can be used when analytic solutions are impractical or nonexistent because…

It has become increasingly important for future business professionals to understand statistical computing methods as data science has gained widespread use in contemporary organizational decision processes in recent years. Used by scores of academics and practitioners in a variety of fields, Monte Carlo simulation is one of the most broadly…

This contribution shows a simple implementation of Monte Carlo simulation method when presenting Bayes' rule. The implementation is carried out in the environment of Microsoft Excel spreadsheets by means of a generator of random numbers. The empiric results gained by simulation serve to confirm the correctness of the chosen procedures in…

Survival analysis is an important analytic method in the social and medical sciences. Also known under the name time-to-event analysis, this method provides parameter estimation and model fitting commonly conducted via maximum-likelihood. Bayesian survival analysis offers multiple advantages over the frequentist approach for measurement…

Bayesian statistics has gained great momentum since the computational developments of the 1990s. Gradually, advances in Bayesian methodology and software have made Bayesian techniques much more accessible to applied statisticians and, in turn, have potentially transformed Bayesian education at the undergraduate level. This article provides an…

In this digital ITEMS module, Dr. Roy Levy describes Bayesian approaches to psychometric modeling. He discusses how Bayesian inference is a mechanism for reasoning in a probability-modeling framework and is well-suited to core problems in educational measurement: reasoning from student performances on an assessment to make inferences about their…

While computing has become an important part of the statistics field, course offerings are still influenced by a legacy of mathematically centric thinking. Due to this legacy, Bayesian ideas are not required for undergraduate degrees and have largely been taught at the graduate level; however, with recent advances in software and emphasis on…

Latent change score models (LCSMs) proposed by McArdle (McArdle, 2000, 2009; McArdle & Nesselroade, 1994) offer a powerful tool for longitudinal data analysis. They are becoming increasingly popular in social and behavioral research (e.g., Gerstorf et al., 2007; Ghisletta & Lindenberger, 2005; King et al., 2006; Raz et al., 2008). Although…

In this article, we systematically introduce the just another Gibbs sampler (JAGS) software program to fit common Bayesian cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) including the deterministic inputs, noisy "and" gate model; the deterministic inputs, noisy "or" gate model; the linear logistic model; the reduced reparameterized unified…

Monte Carlo simulations for uncertainty propagation take as inputs the uncertainty distribution for each variable and an equation for the calculation of a desired quantity. The desired quantity is then calculated by randomly drawing from the specified uncertainty distributions of the input variables. This calculation is then repeated many times…

We propose a dyadic Item Response Theory (dIRT) model for measuring interactions of pairs of individuals when the responses to items represent the actions (or behaviors, perceptions, etc.) of each individual (actor) made within the context of a dyad formed with another individual (partner). Examples of its use include the assessment of…

For the least-squares analysis of data having multiple uncertain variables, the generally accepted best solution comes from minimizing the sum of weighted squared residuals over all uncertain variables, with, for example, weights in x[subscript i] taken as inversely proportional to the variance [delta][subscript xi][superscript 2]. A complication…

We propose a semester-long Bayesian statistics course for undergraduate students with calculus and probability background. We cultivate students' Bayesian thinking with Bayesian methods applied to real data problems. We leverage modern Bayesian computing techniques not only for implementing Bayesian methods, but also to deepen students'…

The Monte Carlo method and related multiple imputation methods are traditionally used in math, physics and science to estimate and analyze data and are now becoming standard tools in analyzing business and financial problems. However, few sources explain the application of the Monte Carlo method for individuals and business professionals who are…