When a response pattern does not fit a selected measurement model, one may resort to robust ability estimation. Two popular robust methods are biweight and Huber weight. So far, research on these methods has been quite limited. This article proposes the maximum a posteriori biweight (BMAP) and Huber weight (HMAP) estimation methods. These methods…

The topic of Bayesian updating is explored using standard and non-standard dice as an intuitive and motivating model. Details of calculating posterior probabilities for a discrete distribution are provided, offering a different view to P-values. This article also includes the stars and bars counting technique, a powerful method of counting that is…

In this article, we propose a variational Bayes (VB) inference method for the deterministic input noisy AND gate model of cognitive diagnostic assessment. The proposed method, which applies the iterative algorithm for optimization, is derived based on the optimal variational posteriors of the model parameters. The proposed VB inference enables…

Researchers often seek to synthesize results of multiple studies on the same topic to draw statistical or substantive conclusions and to estimate effect sizes that will inform power analyses for future research. The most popular synthesis approach is meta-analysis. There have been few discussions and applications of other synthesis approaches.…

The analysis of cross-lagged relationships is a popular approach in prevention research to explore the dynamics between constructs over time. However, a limitation of commonly used cross-lagged models is the requirement of equally spaced measurement occasions that prevents the usage of flexible longitudinal designs and complicates cross-study…

Commonly used machine learning applications seem to relate to big data. This article provides a gentle review of machine learning and shows why machine learning can be applied to small data too. An example of applying machine learning to screen irregularity reports is presented. In the example, the support vector machine and multinomial naïve…

This tutorial uses publicly available data from drug makers and the Food and Drug Administration to guide learners to estimate the confidence intervals of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy rates with a Bayesian framework. Under the classical approach, there is no probability associated with a parameter, and the meaning of confidence intervals can be…

In standardized educational testing, test items are reused in multiple test administrations. To ensure the validity of test scores, the psychometric properties of items should remain unchanged over time. In this article, we consider the sequential monitoring of test items, in particular, the detection of abrupt changes to their psychometric…

Uncertainty is ubiquitous in science, but scientific knowledge is often represented to the public and in educational contexts as certain and immutable. This contrast can foster distrust when scientific knowledge develops in a way that people perceive as a reversals, as we have observed during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing on research in…

Sir Ronald Fisher's venerable experiment "The Lady Tasting Tea" is revisited from a Bayesian perspective. We demonstrate how a similar tasting experiment, conducted in a classroom setting, can familiarize students with several key concepts of Bayesian inference, such as the prior distribution, the posterior distribution, the Bayes…

This study proposes a two-stage causal modeling with instrumental variables to mitigate selection bias, provide correct standard error estimates, and address nonnormal and missing data issues simultaneously. Bayesian methods are used for model estimation. Robust methods with Student's "t" distributions are used to account for nonnormal…

In relational event networks, the tendency for actors to interact with each other depends greatly on the past interactions between the actors in a social network. Both the volume of past interactions and the time that has elapsed since the past interactions affect the actors' decision-making to interact with other actors in the network. Recently…

There has been considerable interest in techniques for modelling student learning across practice problems to drive real-time adaptive learning, with particular focus on variants of the classic Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) model proposed by Corbett & Anderson, 1995. Over time researches have proposed many variants of BKT with…

This article is motivated by the importance of developing statistically literate students. The authors present a selection of problems that could be used to motivate student interest in probability as well as providing additional depth to the curriculum when used alongside traditional resources. The solutions presented utilise natural frequencies…

The year 2022 is the 20th anniversary of Joseph Schafer and John Graham's paper titled "Missing data: Our view of the state of the art," currently the most highly cited paper in the history of "Psychological Methods." Much has changed since 2002, as missing data methodologies have continually evolved and improved; the range of…