Predicting incoming enrollment is an ongoing concern for the School District of Philadelphia (SDP) and similar districts with school choice systems, substantial student mobility, or both. Inaccurate predictions can disrupt learning as districts adjust to enrollment fluctuations by reshuffling teachers and students well into the fall semester. This…

Explores current trends in school enrollment, projected enrollment through 2000, and implications for educators. A new baby "boomette", beginning in 1973 and peaking in 1988, will increase school enrollments throughout the 1990s. After 1995, kindergarten enrollment will decline and secondary enrollment, now steadily declining, will…

Personnel at the College of Lake County (CLC) developed a projections model for student enrollment that satisfies the need for information for budget projections and for planning purposes. CLC is a medium-sized suburban community college located north of Chicago. The Enrollment Management Team was asked to create a process to project enrollments…

The use of subjective probability as a theoretical model for enrollment forecasting is proposed, and the results of an application of subjective probability to enrollment forecasting at the University of Toledo are reported. Subjective probability can be used as an enrollment forecasting technique for both headcount and full-time equivalent using…

Describes how the State University of New York, using large databases and regression techniques, has developed several coordinated, comprehensive efforts to evaluate and project current and future enrollments. One requires decomposition of the student population into mutually exclusive subgroups. The other, superior, approach uses logistic…

Technical specifications, operating procedures, and reference information for the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems' (NCHEMS) Student Flow Model (SFM) computer programs are presented. Included are narrative descriptions of the system and its modules, specific program documentation for each of the modules, system flowcharts,…

The Departmental Enrollment Projection Model (DEPM), which is based on the assumption that enrollments are essentially influenced by economic and social forces, is described. Under the model's approach, the department, rather than the institution as a whole, is seen as the focal point of both the enrollment projection and, by implication, the…

The use of data on longitudinal student attendance patterns to determine variances, and hence confidence bounds, on student enrollment forecasts, in addition to finding the forecasts themselves, is demonstrated. The formulation of the enrollment model based on longitudinal student attendance patterns is described step by step, presenting the…

Revenue forecasting is the critical first step in most college and university budget-planning processes. While it seems a straightforward exercise, effective forecasting requires consideration of a number of interacting internal and external variables, including demographic trends, economic conditions, and broad social priorities. The challenge…

An analysis is presented of the application of the Fiscal Trend Monitoring System (FISM) to community services/community education programs. First, background material describes the FISM as an approach to monitoring the financial condition of a county, city, township, or other governmental body with taxing capacity and explains how it may be…

This report uses data from the National Postsecondary Student Aid Study and the Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study to examine how low income undergraduates (with family incomes below 125 percent of the federally established poverty threshold) finance their postsecondary education, focusing on the importance of financial aid. The…

The viability of Freeman's Recursive Adjustment Model as a management tool for explaining and predicting enrollments and the job market is examined using macro and micro cases. To establish a relationship between college attendance and the college job market, Freeman employed a 3-equation model to analyze the causative supply and demand…

The Missouri School Profile System is composed of six profiles drawn from pre-existing databases, with the data organized in a manner useful to school districts for comparison purposes and returned to school districts for their use. Use of such a system should reduce or eliminate the need for special school district studies of finance or pupil…

Statistical data on seven Israeli universities for 1977-78 are presented in this annual statistical abstract compiled by the Planning and Grants Committee of the Council for Higher Education. Data on students are tabulated according to academic institution, level of degree, field of study, age, sex, and continent of birth. Enrollments and…

Short-term forecasting methods for assessing the number of students finishing schooling in France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom are reviewed. Types of data that are available for each country are discussed, as well as suggestions for data that need to be collected for more efficient forecasting. (Author/IS)