Judgments under uncertainty are often mediated by intuitive heuristics that are not bound by the conjunction rule of probability. Representativeness and availability heuristics can make a conjunction appear more probable than one of its constituents. Alternative interpretations of this conjunction fallacy are discussed and attempts to combat it…

Discusses Kris N. Kirby's work on signal detection theory and its application to Watson's selection task. Identifies problems with the design and interpretation of Kirby's card-selection experiments. (DR)

Discusses Over and Evans' alternative interpretations to Kris N. Kirby's card-selection tasks and finds empirical difficulties. Cites the potentially important contribution of Over and Evans to understanding of the card-selection task by applying the notion of epistemic utility. (DR)

Discussion of probabilistic information retrieval systems highlights the probability ranking principle and discusses when the standard retrieval policy is optimal. Topics discussed include calibration and refinement; independent assessment of relevance by the inquirer; certainty about the computed probabilities of relevance; and confidence and…

This article explores the potential of Bayesian inference as a theoretical framework for describing how people evaluate hypotheses. First, it identifies a set of logically possible forms of non-Bayesian behavior. Second, it reviews existing research in a variety of areas to see whether these possibilities are ever realized. (Author/BW)

In the educational research literature alpha, the a priori level of significance, and p, the a posteriori probability of obtaining a test statistic of at least a certain value when the null hypothesis is true, are often confused. Explanations for this confusion are offered. Paradoxically, alpha retains a prominent place in textbook discussions of…

E. Burns' (1984) attempt to explain the below average mean IQ scores reported for samples of learning dsabled (LD) students through the use of the bivariate normal probability distribution was examined. Alternative explanations which focus on issues related to the referral, identification, and placement of children are presented.(Author)

Discusses the meaning of information in terms of Shannon's mathematical theory of communication and the concept of uncertainty. The uncertainty associated with the transmission of the signal is argued to have more significance for information science than the uncertainty associated with the selection of a message from a set of possible messages.…

Reviews chapters of this book on probability in mathematics education. Topics discussed in the chapters include a historical perspective of probability, an epistemological perspective of probability, an overview of the psychological research on probability learning, computers in probability education, and an analysis of the probability curriculum.…