College enrollment will be relatively stable over the next four years according to new projections by the U.S. Department of Education. (MLW)

Bayesian methods for estimating dose response curves in quantal bioassay are studied. A linearized multi-stage model is assumed for the shape of the curves. A Gibbs sampling approach with data augmentation is employed to compute the Bayes estimates. In addition, estimation of the "relative additional risk" and the "risk specific…

Available empirical data relating to the effects of changes in freshmen admissions at the university are summarized. Included are the data concerning the construction of an admissions index based on core high school GPA and verbal and quantitative test scores. Findings are that the arbitrary weighting of one-third test scores to two-thirds HS…

A study attempted to relate the frequency and intensity of the use of specific drugs by college students to reasons for use, with the objective of differentiating types of users. Results indicate that the relationship between reason for use and intensity and frequency differs by drug. (JN)

In this technical report, data are presented on the predictive and concurrent relation between various student demographic variables (gender, race/ethnicity, special education status, Title 1 status, English language learning status, and economic disadvantage) and three reading easyCBMs (passage reading fluency, vocabulary, and multiple-choice…

The diffusion and U.S. geographic distribution of primary care physicians are discussed in three papers. The literature on the diffusion issue is reviewed in the first paper. After introducing diffusion concepts, measures, and problems, current evidence for the diffusion of physicians are assessed, and efforts to forecast future needs for…

The development of time-series revenue projections for University of Alaska Budget Request Units (BRUs) is described. Fiscal planning modes in higher education are reviewed, along with the attributes of judgmental, time-series, and causal forecasting techniques. The following six submodels comprise the necessary dimensions of the comprehensive…

Many factors influence the grades students earn. Without the intervention of institutional forces, it is reasonable to suspect that the mean semester index of successful students will remain constant with the passage of time. If, on the other hand, institutional variables exist that influence grading standards, then it is reasonable to suspect…

The correspondence between Medical College Admission Test scores and undergraduate science grades is examined, and the role that medical college selectivity plays in moderating the relationship is explored. Data are from all applicants in the 1981-82 entering class for whom complete information was available. (MSE)

If an effective school is defined as a school that causes student improvement on a number of important educational outcomes, the problem of identifying effective schools becomes one of establishing legitimate predictions of student performance and comparing those predictions to actual student or school outcomes. In attempting to identify effective…

As an alternative for or adjunct to paper-and-pencil tests for predicting personnel performance, the United States Air Force studied the use of peer ratings as an evaluative tool. Purpose of this study was to evaluate the psychometric characteristics of peer ratings among Air Force basic trainees. Peer ratings were obtained from more than 27,000…

The problem of forecasting monthly demands for library network services is considered in terms of using forecasts as inputs to policy analysis models, and in terms of using forecasts to aid in the making of budgeting and staffing decisions. Box-Jenkins time-series methodology, adaptive filtering, and regression approaches are examined and compared…

A project was undertaken in the San Diego Community College District to develop a consistent districtwide placement testing program using the same test instruments and uniform cut-off scores for placement in English and mathematics courses. As part of the project, a study was conducted to correlate English placement test scores and grades for all…

This report contains the first projections produced by the federal government of the Spanish-origin population by age, sex, and race for the years 1983 to 2080. These national projections, based on 1982 population estimates, show what the future Spanish-origin population would be under various assumptions about fertility, mortality, and net…

Each year the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) publishes a pocket summary of their "Projections of Education Statistics." This summary reviews data on U.S. education from 1980-81 and provides predictions of educational data until 2002-03. Included are tables summarizing population trends and tables of elementary school and…