Colleges have increasingly turned to predictive analytics to target at-risk students for additional support. Most of the predictive analytic applications in higher education are proprietary, with private companies offering little transparency about their underlying models. We address this lack of transparency by systematically comparing two…

A model for predicting student credit hours (SCH) over a 2-year period was developed at the University of South Florida. A major application of the model would be to estimate the expected loss of upper-level SCH that would occur as a result of reduced lower-level enrollment. Attention was focused on the long-range effect of lower-level enrollment…

College enrollment will be relatively stable over the next four years according to new projections by the U.S. Department of Education. (MLW)

Available empirical data relating to the effects of changes in freshmen admissions at the university are summarized. Included are the data concerning the construction of an admissions index based on core high school GPA and verbal and quantitative test scores. Findings are that the arbitrary weighting of one-third test scores to two-thirds HS…

A study attempted to relate the frequency and intensity of the use of specific drugs by college students to reasons for use, with the objective of differentiating types of users. Results indicate that the relationship between reason for use and intensity and frequency differs by drug. (JN)

The diffusion and U.S. geographic distribution of primary care physicians are discussed in three papers. The literature on the diffusion issue is reviewed in the first paper. After introducing diffusion concepts, measures, and problems, current evidence for the diffusion of physicians are assessed, and efforts to forecast future needs for…

The development of time-series revenue projections for University of Alaska Budget Request Units (BRUs) is described. Fiscal planning modes in higher education are reviewed, along with the attributes of judgmental, time-series, and causal forecasting techniques. The following six submodels comprise the necessary dimensions of the comprehensive…

Many factors influence the grades students earn. Without the intervention of institutional forces, it is reasonable to suspect that the mean semester index of successful students will remain constant with the passage of time. If, on the other hand, institutional variables exist that influence grading standards, then it is reasonable to suspect…

The correspondence between Medical College Admission Test scores and undergraduate science grades is examined, and the role that medical college selectivity plays in moderating the relationship is explored. Data are from all applicants in the 1981-82 entering class for whom complete information was available. (MSE)

The effect of demographic trends on Connecticut college enrollments from 1983 to 2000 is assessed. Attention is directed to the following: changes in the age distribution of Connecticut's population--1980 to 2000; statewide undergraduate enrollment projections to 2000; enrollment projections by enrollment status and full-time-equivalent…

The view that there will be severe faculty shortages at Canadian universities in the 1990s is refuted, based on analyses concerning the demand for university teachers and the supply of doctoral graduates. In the 1990s when there is no foreseeable increase in university positions, replacement (i.e, due to retirement and mortality) will be the only…

Procedures for predicting academic achievement at Indiana University, Bloomington, are examined, based on data for the 4,145 freshmen who entered the university in fall 1983. Three sets of prediction equations and a graphic scheme for determining probable first semester grade point averages (GPAs) for males and females are provided. Entering…

The degree to which the PCAT, SAT, grade point average, and other admission criteria can predict student academic performance in a school of pharmacy and on professional licensing examinations is assessed. The performance of pharmacy students on quantitative admission measures, academic courses and licensing examinations are analyzed and compared.…

In 1979, the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) began its high school graduates by state projections. The three editions issued since that time have been widely used. This report provides an analysis of the accuracy of the WICHE's projections and an examination of the cohort survival method used to generate the projections.…

Talent identification in most sports occurs through mass participation and the process of natural selection; track and field does not enjoy such widespread participation. This paper reports on a project undertaken for the following purposes: improve the means by which youth with the potential for high level performance can be identified; develop…