Across all social science disciplines, but in particular public administration, there is a shared concern about the costs of using traditional random samples to generate data, and its impact on researchers' ability to engage in "quality" research. As a result of these costs, more academics, practitioners, and students are turning to…

This seventh in a series of articles discussing expert system construction focuses on two ways to create a structure that determines a decision: (1) rule-based, or deductive, implementation; and (2) example-based, or inductive, implementation. Probability factors and confidence levels are discussed, and an example is given for selecting an…

Using license plates and telephone numbers for teaching probability ideas involving counting rules is suggested. How each is useful is illustrated in some detail. (MNS)

A number game, used with sixth- and seventh-grade students, involving place value is described and discussed. (MK)

How probabilities change when playing the game of craps with dice having 8, 12, or 20 faces is discussed. Five challenge questions are also included. (MNS)

Writing short computer programs can help students to develop an understanding of random processes in probability. Three sample programs are included. (MNS)

Activities involving spinners and dice are presented. Making the materials is noted, followed by activities on counting, computation, probability, fractions, and other ideas. (MNS)

Included in this section are brief articles on making up a story to explain a graph, the inverse of a function of a single variable, and exotic horse-race wagering and combinatorics. (MNS)

Several common errors reflecting difficulties in probabilistic reasoning are identified, relating to ambiguity, previous outcomes, sampling, unusual events, and estimating. Knowledge of these mistakes and interpretations may help mathematics teachers understand the thought processes of their students. (MNS)

A computer program is presented which simulates the classical probability machine, using Applesoft II high-resolution graphics. Many variables are left to the user's choosing. Suggestions for using the machine, understanding the problem, the mathematical model, and further program documentation are given. (MNS)

Some counterintuitive ideas in probability are examined. In particular, for sequential selection procedure, such as drawing cards, it is shown that there is probabilistic advantage to drawing first (or early) relative to drawing last (or late) in the sequence. (Author/MK)

This essay illustrates a technique for reducing the risks of capital investment decisions involving considerable sums for advanced technologies by considering its application to a problem that arises frequently in selection of automated library systems. Incomplete information, using available information, selecting a system, and consultants are…

The probability of winning the contest was analyzed, with the mathematical solution and a computer simulation given. A flowchart and computer program are both included. (MNS)