ERIC Number: EJ1247051
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2020-Apr
Pages: 11
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-1090-1981
EISSN: N/A
Available Date: N/A
Integrating Social Dynamics into Modeling Cigarette and E-Cigarette Use
Chu, Kar-Hai; Shensa, Ariel; Colditz, Jason B.; Sidani, Jaime E.; Hoffman, Beth L.; Sinclair, David; Krauland, Mary G.; Primack, Brian A.
Health Education & Behavior, v47 n2 p191-201 Apr 2020
Background: The use of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarette) offers potential to facilitate cigarette smoking cessation, yet potentially increases risk of cigarette smoking initiation. This relationship has been primarily modeled in mathematical ways that often do not represent real-world complexities, which could inform decisions regarding local prevention programs or policies. Aims: To develop a model of cigarette and e-cigarette use that combines current research on tobacco use and incorporates real-world geographic and demographic data. Method: We used a platform for developing agent-based models with demographic information representative of the population in Pennsylvania. We developed three models of cigarette and e-cigarette use. The primary outcome for each was the total number of users for cigarette, e-cigarette, and total nicotine. The first model applied current cigarette and e-cigarette data, the second tested the effect of implementing a program of e-cigarette education and policies, and the third considered a social contagion factor, where local schools functioned as a transmission vector. Results: The baseline and social contagion models found an overall decline in cigarette use but an increase in e-cigarette and total nicotine use. The education/policies model had declines in all categories. Sensitivity analysis suggested the importance of nuanced e-cigarette/cigarette interactions when modeling tobacco use. Discussion: Public health campaigns that focus on reducing youth e-cigarette usage can have a large effect. Social contagion should be strongly considered when studying e-cigarette spread. Conclusion: Targeted public health campaigns focused on reducing school prevalence of e-cigarette use may be particularly valuable.
Descriptors: Smoking, Electronic Equipment, Risk, Health Behavior, Prevention, Models, Program Implementation, Health Education, Public Policy, Social Influences, Public Health, Incidence, Educational Environment, Simulation
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: National Cancer Institute (NCI) (NIH)
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Location: Pennsylvania
Grant or Contract Numbers: K07CA222338; R01CA225773
Author Affiliations: N/A