Learning progressions (LPs) describe the development of domain-specific knowledge, skills, and understanding. Each level of an LP characterizes a phase of student thinking en route to a target performance. The rationale behind LP development is to provide road maps that can be used to guide student thinking from one level to the next. The validity…

We present a new method for analyzing a student's learning over time for a specific skill: analysis of the graph of the student's moment-by-moment learning over time. Moment-by-moment learning is calculated using a data-mined model that assesses the probability that a student learned a skill or concept at a specific time during learning (Baker,…