A fundamental aspect of statistical inference is representation of real-world data using statistical models. This article analyzes students' articulations of statistical models and modeling during their first steps in making informal statistical inferences. An integrated modeling approach (IMA) was designed and implemented to help students…

A sample lacking variance was judged less probable than a variable sample and a sample representing the upper half of the population was judged less likely than one representing both. As range and mean approached an ideal, samples appeared more probable. A hierarchical model of sample cues seems appropriate. (CPT)