The purpose of this study is to develop an estimate of Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) that will allow for reliable and valid comparisons among student subgroups, schools, and districts. A shrinkage-type estimator of AYP using the Bayesian framework is described. Using simulated data, the performance of the Bayes estimator will be compared to currently-used non-Bayes estimator. While it is likely that NCLB will either experience a major overall or go away altogether, decisions will still have to be made about children's academic performance, and these systems will likely continue to use assessment performance as an indicator of academic performance. The estimator developed here has application to such accountability measure. (Contains 1 table and 1 figure.)