The passage of the Kentucky Education Reform Act (KERA) in the 1990s made Kentucky one of the first states to initiate comprehensive education reform. It established a legislatively mandated goal that all public schools reach "proficiency" (100 of 140 points) on an accountability index by 2014. This paper tries to predict which schools in the state will reach proficiency. In 2001, with 9 years of accountability concluded, 162 schools had garnered at least 80 points, 543 had at least 70, and 1,009 schools had at least 60 points. Although a simple summation of yearly gains indicates that most schools will meet the 100-point goal, major changes in the accountability system make it difficult to estimate how many schools will make it. The report looks at three different ways to predict school achievement: method A accepts the past and assumes the future will be a linear extension; method B assumes a huge increase evident from 1998 to 1999 was an aberration and excludes that year in making projections; and method C uses a 7-year average and adds this to a base score. Relying on method C as the more reliable predictor, the report concludes that, unless the accountability system is changed once again, most schools will not reach the 100-point minimum by 2014. (Contains 10 references and 3 appendices that contain forecasting scores for successful schools.) (RJM)