Objective: This study examines how accurately a small set of short-term academic indicators can approximate long-term outcomes of community college students so that decision-makers can take informed actions based on those indicators to evaluate the current progress of large-scale reform efforts on long-term outcomes, which in practice will not be…

Purpose: The purpose of this case study was to determine the impact of utilizing predictive modeling to improve successful course completion rates for at-risk students at California community colleges. A secondary purpose of the study was to identify factors of predictive modeling that have the most importance for improving successful course…

Retention is a complex issue of great importance to community colleges. Several retention models have been developed to help explain this phenomenon. However, these models typically have used four-year college and university environments to build their foundations. Several researchers have attempted to identify predictor variables using…

The paper uses the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data system (IPEDS) data to simulate the 2020 American Graduation Initiative (AGI) goal introduced by President Obama in the summer of 2009. We estimate community college graduation rates and completion numbers under different scenarios that include the following sets of variables: (a) internal…

For the past several years, community college presidents have retired at alarming rates. At the same time, institutional needs have shifted and new skill sets are often desired. These changes, coupled with a lack of leader succession plans, budget cuts, and an increased emphasis on accountability, created opportunities for candidates with…

Prediction models using graduation rate as the performance indicator were obtained for community colleges in California, Florida, and Michigan. The results of this study indicated that institutional graduation rate could be predicted effectively from an aggregate of student and institutional characteristics. A performance measure was computed, the…

Data mining of IPEDS data is used to develop models that calculate predicted graduation rates for two- and four-year institutions. (Contains 7 tables and 5 figures.)