Student mobility that occurs within a school year may be especially disruptive for student outcomes, yet little is known regarding the predictors of within-year mobility. In particular, research has yet to comprehensively examine the role of student achievement in predicting within-year student mobility. Thus, we sought to understand this link by…

The construction of prediction models reflecting players' learning performance in serious games currently faces various challenges for learning analytics. In this study, we design, implement, and field test a learning analytics system for a serious game, advancing the field by explicitly showing which in-game features correspond to differences in…

Effective personalization of education requires knowing how each student will perform under certain conditions, given their specific characteristics. Thus, the demand for interpretable and precise estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is ever-present. This paper outlines a new approach to this problem based on the Leave-One-Out Potential…

This study evaluated the forecasting accuracy of trend estimation methods applied to time-series data from computer adaptive tests (CATs). Data were collected roughly once a month over the course of a school year. We evaluated the forecasting accuracy of two regression-based growth estimation methods (ordinary least squares and Theil-Sen). The…

NWEA claimed their assessment results could accurately predict student performance in reading and mathematics on the ACT Aspire for students in Grades 7 through 10. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between students' scores on the NWEA MAP tests in reading and mathematics and the ACT Aspire for students in Grades 7…

Recent methods have sought to improve precision in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) by utilizing data from large observational datasets for covariate adjustment. For example, consider an RCT aimed at evaluating a new algebra curriculum, in which a few dozen schools are randomly assigned to treatment (new curriculum) or control (standard…

Dropout remains a persistent challenge within high school education. In this paper, we present a case study on automatically detecting whether a student is at-risk of dropout within a diverse school district in Texas. We predict whether a student will drop out in a future school year from data on students' discipline, attendance, course-taking,…

The importance of fraction knowledge to later mathematics achievement, along with U.S. students' poor knowledge of fraction concepts and procedures, has prompted research on the development of fraction learning. In the present study, participants' (N = 536) development of fraction magnitude understanding and fraction arithmetic skills was assessed…

Since 2012, the Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction (DPI) has maintained a statewide predictive analytics system providing schools with an early warning in middle grades of students at risk for not completing high school. DPI is considering extending and enhancing this system, known as the Dropout Early Warning System (DEWS). The proposed…

The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which early literacy measures administered in kindergarten and Oral Reading Fluency (ORF) measures administered in Grade 1 are related to and predict future state reading assessment performances up to 7 years later. Results indicated that early literacy and ORF performances were…

The Motivation for Educational Attainment (MEA) questionnaire, developed to assess facets related to early adolescents' motivation to complete high school, has a bifactor structure with a large general factor and three smaller orthogonal specific factors (teacher expectations, peer aspirations, value of education). This prospective validity study…

The purpose of this non-experimental quantitative study was to investigate the relationship between Pennsylvania's Classroom Diagnostic Tools (CDT) interim assessments and the state-mandated Pennsylvania System of School Assessment (PSSA) and to create linear regression equations that could be used as models to predict student performance on the…

We investigate the link between schooling achievement and creativity scores, controlling for personality traits and other individual characteristics. Our study is based on field data collected in a secondary school situated in a Parisian suburb. Four scores of creativity were measured on 9th graders. Verbal divergent thinking negatively predicts…

Education is one of the strongest predictors of health worldwide. In South Africa, school dropout is a crisis where by Grade 12, only 52% of the age appropriate population remain enrolled. Survival analysis was used to identify the risk of dropping out of secondary school for male and female adolescents and examine the influence of substance use…

Data from the School Success Profile generated by 19,228 middle and high school students were organized into three broad categories of risk and protective factors--control, support, and challenge--to examine the relative and combined power of aggregate scale scores in each category so as to predict academic success. It was hypothesized that higher…