Background: As urban school districts have increasingly adopted "early warning indicators" such as the ninth-grade on-track measure to identify students who may need additional support, it is crucial to assess the effectiveness of this measure in predicting high school graduation. While there is considerable research on these indicators'…

Working from the notion that the goal of middle school is to prepare students to successfully transition to high school, Baltimore Education Research Consortium (BERC) researchers investigated a range of outcomes consistent with this aim, such as performance in ninth grade, promotion to tenth grade, and course grades or test scores in middle…

This study explores how predictive different indicators are for high school graduation, college enrollment, and degree completion for different groups of English Learners. Using these indicators can improve schools' ability to understand the needs of English Learners, enabling them to provide better support and increase students' educational…

Noncognitive constructs such as self-efficacy, social awareness, and academic engagement are widely acknowledged as critical components of human capital, but systematic data collection on such skills in school systems is complicated by conceptual ambiguities, measurement challenges and resource constraints. This study addresses this issue by…

While a number of factors have already been shown to impact variations in graduation rates among students in Canada, there is little research examining the changing impact of these factors on Ontario students' secondary education completion over time. This research draws on data from two Grade 9 cohorts (2006 and 2011) from the Toronto District…

Noncognitive constructs such as self-efficacy, social awareness, and academic engagement are widely acknowledged as critical components of human capital, but systematic data collection on such skills in school systems is complicated by conceptual ambiguities, measurement challenges and resource constraints. This study addresses this issue by…

Using administrative data from an urban school district, two series of predictive models were tested for their ability to project a student's high school graduation status. The models included student grades, attendance, behavior, demographic predictors, and school-level variables. Eighth and ninth-grade variables were tested for two graduation…

Students with Emotional Disturbance (ED) graduate from high school with a standard diploma at rates far below their peers. The present study utilised archival data of former high school students with ED and a nondisabled comparison group to examine graduation-related predictor variables. The results indicated that grade point average and…

Building on previous research showing how well ninth-grade student behaviors predict on-time high school graduation, this experimental study investigates the impact of a ninth-grade intervention on student attendance and course passing. The study, conducted in 41 geographically and demographically diverse high schools within a single state,…

This longitudinal study of Mexican-American youth and emerging adults examines several ecodevelopmental factors longitudinally predicting high school and college graduation. Data from 1257 Mexican-American youth (including those born in Mexico and whose families are from Mexico) from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add…

Students' engagement and performance in their first year of high school offer strong signals about their prospects for earning a diploma 4 years later. These performance measures can be used to construct "on-track" indicators to measure a school's performance and to identify needs of specific students who are at risk of dropping out.…

Incisive research from the University of Chicago Urban Education Institute on the prevalence and consequences of absenteeism in Chicago schools has highlighted the dramatic effects of even moderate amounts of absences on grades, graduation rates, and student success in college. These insights spurred not only an ambitious 98% attendance goal on…

In partnership with the Midwest Dropout Prevention Research Alliance the study team used student-level data and a five-step process to identify the most accurate indicators of students' failure to graduate from high school on time. Student-level data came from attendance records, transcripts, and discipline records of grade 8 and 9 students in…

This report is part of a long-term collaboration of the Quality Teaching for English Learners initiative at WestEd with the Fort Worth Independent School District. The objective of this report is to explore how ninth grade data can predict the graduation outcomes of newcomers. Based upon predictor variables, binary indicators can identify students…

This study analyzed data on students in three Ohio school districts who had completed grades 8 and 9 to determine which data elements were the most accurate indicators of students' failure to graduate from high school on time. The most accurate indicators varied by district and grade level, which underscores the importance of having school systems…