Dynamic structural equation models (DSEM) are designed for time series analysis of latent structures. Inherent to the application of DSEM is model parameter estimation, which has to be addressed in many applications by a single time series. In this context, however, the methods currently available either lack estimation quality or are…

The nature of teaching and learning has evolved over the years, especially as technology has evolved. Innovative application of educational analytics has gained momentum. Indeed, predictive analytics have become increasingly salient in education. Considering the prevalence of learner-system interaction data and the potential value of such data, it…

The American Family Health Study (AFHS) collected family health and fertility data from a national probability sample of persons aged 18-49 between September 2021 and May 2022, using web and mail exclusively. In July 2022, we surveyed AFHS respondents and gauged their willingness to become part of a national web panel that would create novel…

This study evaluated the forecasting accuracy of trend estimation methods applied to time-series data from computer adaptive tests (CATs). Data were collected roughly once a month over the course of a school year. We evaluated the forecasting accuracy of two regression-based growth estimation methods (ordinary least squares and Theil-Sen). The…

This article uses an anonymous 2014-15 school year dataset from the Directorate-General for Statistics of Education and Science (DGEEC) of the Portuguese Ministry of Education as a means to carry out a predictive power comparison between the classic multilinear regression model and a chosen set of machine learning algorithms. A multilinear…

This paper combines a theoretical-based model with a data-driven approach to develop an Early Warning System that detects students who are more likely to dropout. The model uses innovative multilevel statistical and machine learning methods. The paper demonstrates the validity of the approach by applying it to administrative data from a leading…

Recent methods have sought to improve precision in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) by utilizing data from large observational datasets for covariate adjustment. For example, consider an RCT aimed at evaluating a new algebra curriculum, in which a few dozen schools are randomly assigned to treatment (new curriculum) or control (standard…

Institutions are applying methods and practices from data analytics under the umbrella term of "learning analytics" to inform instruction, library practices, and institutional research, among other things. This study reports findings from interviews with professional advisors at a public higher education institution. It reports their…

Many low-income young people are not reaching important milestones for success (for example, completing a program or graduating from school on time). But the social-service organizations and schools that serve them often struggle to identify who is at more or less risk. These institutions often either over- or underestimate risk, missing…

This post is one in a series highlighting MDRC's methodological work. Contributors discuss the refinement and practical use of research methods being employed across the organization. Across policy domains, practitioners and researchers are benefiting from a trend of greater access to both more detailed and frequent data and the increased…