The internal validity of observational study is often subject to debate. In this study, we define the counterfactuals as the unobserved sample and intend to quantify its relationship with the null hypothesis statistical testing (NHST). We propose the probability of a robust inference for internal validity, that is, the PIV, as a robustness index…

This study investigates to what extent differences in ability and effort attributions can explain students' reluctance to reorient after failure in the first year at the university. Reluctance to reorient after failure increases the likelihood of drop out. The empirical investigation is based on a sample of fulltime first-entry bachelor students…

We present an instructional approach to teaching causal inference using Bayesian networks and "do"-Calculus, which requires less prerequisite knowledge of statistics than existing approaches and can be consistently implemented in beginner to advanced levels courses. Moreover, this approach aims to address the central question in causal…

Organizational change is a phenomenon that must be faced and carried out by every individual in the organization to achieve organizational goals. Embodiments of organizational change often occur not because it suits the needs of the organization but because of personal interests and power. This study aimed to determine the main factors that can…

This literature-based, classroom-tested novel innovation of educational song (with pedagogical scaffolding) may help engage students explore and address common resistant misconceptions in probability (e.g. all outcomes are equally likely) and in statistics (e.g. correlation must imply either causation or coincidence).

To assist new scientists in the transition to independent research careers, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) implemented an Early Stage Investigator (ESI) policy beginning with applications submitted in 2009. During the review process, the ESI designation segregates applications submitted by investigators who are within 10 years of…

Only half of SAT-takers retake the exam, with even lower retake rates among low income and underrepresented minority (URM) students. We exploit discontinuous jumps in retake probabilities at multiples of 100, driven by left-digit bias, to estimate retaking's causal effects. Retaking substantially improves SAT scores and increases four-year college…

It is argued that causal understanding originates in experiences of acting on objects. Such experiences have consistent features that can be used as clues to causal identification and judgment. These are singular clues, meaning that they can be detected in single instances. A catalog of 14 singular clues is proposed. The clues function as…

This study analyzes data of the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 to examine the association between parental provision of task-extrinsic rewards for academic performance, parent involvement in students' learning, and students' choice of study field in college. Results show that frequent receipt of task-extrinsic rewards for good grades from…

We evaluate the impact of educational reforms starting from the mid-1990s in India on the school attendance rate of low-income rural children aged 6-14 compared to ineligible rural children, employing NSSO data from 1983 to 2004/2005. We estimate a triple difference model allowing for differential (linear) trends and find a positive causal effect…

Three experiments examined children's and adults' abilities to use statistical and temporal information to distinguish between common cause and causal chain structures. In Experiment 1, participants were provided with conditional probability information and/or temporal information and asked to infer the causal structure of a 3-variable mechanical…

Background/Context: Chronic school absenteeism is a pervasive problem across the US; in early education, it is most rampant in kindergarten and its consequences are particularly detrimental, often leading to poorer academic, behavioral and developmental outcomes later in life. Though prior empirical research has identified a broad range of…

People consider alternative causes when deciding whether a cause is responsible for an effect (diagnostic inference) but appear to neglect them when deciding whether an effect will occur (predictive inference). Five experiments were conducted to test a 2-part explanation of this phenomenon: namely, (a) that people interpret standard predictive…

This dissertation studies the effects of foreign presence on the performance of domestic institutions and economic agents. We identify three types of foreign presence: international students, inward foreign investment, and exporting activities. The first chapter investigates the impacts of international students on the graduation performance of…

Conditionals somehow express conditional beliefs. However, conditional belief is a bi-propositional attitude that is generally not truth-evaluable, in contrast to unconditional belief. Therefore, this article opts for an expressivistic semantics for conditionals, grounds this semantics in the arguably most adequate account of conditional belief,…