Determining which students are at risk of poorer outcomes -- such as dropping out, failing classes, or decreasing standardized examination scores -- has become an important area of research and practice in both K-12 and higher education. The detectors produced from this type of predictive modeling research are increasingly used in early warning…

We present a new method for analyzing a student's learning over time for a specific skill: analysis of the graph of the student's moment-by-moment learning over time. Moment-by-moment learning is calculated using a data-mined model that assesses the probability that a student learned a skill or concept at a specific time during learning (Baker,…