The challenges of modeling students' performance in simulation-based assessments include accounting for multiple aspects of knowledge and skill that arise in different situations and the conditional dependencies among multiple aspects of performance in a complex assessment. This paper describes a Bayesian approach to modeling and estimating…

Related research suggests that children may show some simple understanding of event covariations by the early elementary school years. The present experiments use a rule analysis methodology to investigate covariation judgments of children in this age range. In Experiment 1, children in second, third and fourth grade judged covariations on 12…

A collection of student distortions, represented by student-invented variations of theorems, are presented. They were drawn from examination papers of 17-year-old students in Israel. (MNS)

A general approach is proposed for modeling the structure of a two-way contingency table, and for drawing inferences about the marginal and interaction effects, cell parameters, and conditional probabilities. The prior distribution expresses uncertainty in a simple reduced model, in particular the independence model. The posterior estimates of the…

Introduces two data distortion methods (Frequency-Imposed Distortion, Frequency-Imposed Probability Distortion) and uses a Monte Carlo study to compare their performance with that of other distortion methods (Point Distortion, Probability Distortion). Indications that data generated by these two methods produce accurate statistics and protect…

Proposes approach to integrating Boolean and statistical systems where Boolean queries are interpreted as a means of specifying term dependencies in relevant set of documents. Highlights include series of retrieval experiments designed to test retrieval strategy based on term dependence model and relation of results to other work. (18 references)…

Past research indicates poor agreement about strategies people use to assess covariation between events. This research investigates method of assessment as one possible source of this low consensus. A set of problems was developed in such a way that different judgment rules would produce different decisions about the relationships between events.…

Four strategies used in judgment patterns were explored. Problem sets in which each solution strategy produces a unique solution pattern are depicted. Several experiments had been conducted using rules in this way with subjects from grade 4 through college. Problems were set in the context of concrete events which could be related, and subjects…

This study investigated young children's ability to solve probability problems and studied the cognitive processes proposed by Piaget and Inhelder as necessary to solve probability problems. The effects of tutorial and self-discovery training were measured and discussed. Results from 168 first-graders in five training conditions indicated that:…

Project MAP (Model Accounting Plan) is a demographic accounting model for monitoring the transitions of special education students through the school system and after graduation. MAP predicts the students' paths, considering the student's age, handicap, and instructional setting. Discussed are a pilot test and the model's potential benefits and…

Describes advances in capture-recapture modeling, including the biologically motivated emphasis on model-based hypothesis testing and the development of models for spatially stratified populations. Discusses the severe problems associated with count statistics reflecting unknown sampling fractions. (67 references) (KR)

High-probability requests were provided to two boys (age seven) with behavior disorders and severe disabilities as an antecedent to delivering a low-probability request. Results showed an immediate increase in appropriate responding when the intervention was delivered. Generalized responding and response maintenance were also exhibited.…

The decision making processes of children in a probabilistic environment were studied within the context of the theory of signal detection (TSD). The relationship between the age of the child and his ability to revise decision criteria was examined, as well as the appropriateness of TSD measures and methodology with children. It was hypothesized…

Three versions of a probabilistic model adapted from the theory of information retrieval--a binary version, a version using the full value of the data, and a version using principal components--were tested and applied to data available from application forms to predict graduate school performance of library school students. (EM)

Discusses the importance of teaching thinking skills in a rapidly changing environment and describes a framework for developing school material that cultivates decision-making skills. An instructional model that describes decision-making strategies, necessary cognitive skills, and the educational objectives for the promotion of each skill is…